基于灾害场景预估的配电系统韧性两阶段故障恢复策略

Resilience Two-stage Fault Recovery Strategy for Distribution Network Based on Disaster Scenario Prediction

针对极端灾害所导致的停电事故频发,提前预估可能灾害场景,统筹部署可用应急资源对于提升配电系统韧性指数至关重要。对此,提出一种基于灾害场景预估的配电系统韧性两阶段故障恢复策略,该策略通过构建考虑时间累积效应的配电线路和交通道路中断模型,并采用蒙特卡洛模拟法对线路故障状态进行模拟完成对灾害场景的预估。进一步,基于所预估的灾害场景,以最小化移动应急资源到故障负荷或中断线路调度时间最短为目标,构建了包含移动应急电源充电站和维修人员维修站的灾前预定位模型,以避免高权重故障负荷的中断。此外,以高权重因子故障负荷随时间推移的甩负荷量加权和最小为目标,构建了基于移动应急资源调度的灾后恢复模型,以保证对高权重负荷的快速恢复。最后,基于改进的IEEE 33节点配电系统及其相应的交通运输网,并以所预估的灾害场景为例验证了所提两阶段故障恢复策略的有效性。

It is crucial to predict possible disaster scenarios and coordinate the deployment of available emergency resources to improve the system's resilience index in response to frequent power outages caused by extreme disasters.This article proposes a two-stage elastic fault recovery strategy for distribution systems based on disaster scenario estimation.This strategy constructs a distribution line and traffic road interruption model considering time accumulation effects.It uses Monte Carlo simulation to simulate the fault status of the line to complete the estimation of disaster scenarios.Furthermore,based on the estimated disaster scenario,to minimize the scheduling time from mobile emergency resources to fault loads or interrupted lines,a pre-disaster localization model was constructed,which includes mobile emergency power charging stations and maintenance personnel maintenance stations,to avoid interruptions caused by high-weight fault loads.In addition,a disaster recovery model based on mobile emergency resource scheduling was constructed to minimize the weighted sum of load shedding over time for high-weight factor fault loads to ensure rapid recovery of high-weight loads.Finally,based on the improved IEEE 33 node distribution system and its corresponding transportation network,the effectiveness of the proposed two-stage fault recovery strategy was verified using the estimated disaster scenario as an example.