美国房地产百年发展历程及其启示

Enlightenment and Suggestions from the Century-old Development of America to China Real Estate Industry

本文通过对当前中国与美国历史上城镇化和房地产相似发展阶段进行针对性的对比分析发现,目前中国房地产业发展阶段与美国20世纪50—60年代相似,即处于国家崛起、经济发展、房地产发展的中期稳固调整夯实期。同时,深入剖析美国1940—2007年房地产发展并指出,当前中国尚处于房地产业的“阶段性高点,但不是顶点”,可利用后发优势规避次贷危机等潜在风险。建议回归制造业本质,在发展中构建中国房地产业新的平衡,实现“房地产大国”向“房地产强国”的转型升级。

This article conducts a targeted comparative analysis of the similar development stages of urbanization and real estate in the history of China and the United States,and finds that the current development stage of China's real estate industry is similar to that of the United States in the 1950s and 1960s,that is,it is in the mid-term stable adjustment and consolidation period of national rise,economic development,and real estate development.Meanwhile,an in-depth analysis of the real estate development in the United States from 1940 to 2007 points out that China is still at a“stage high point”in the real estate industry,but not the peak,and its latecomer advantage could be taken to avoid potential risks such as the subprime mortgage crisis.Suggest returning to the essence of manufacturing and building a new balance in the development of China's real estate industry,achieving the transformation and upgrading from a“real estate big country”to a“real estate power country”.