不动产信托投资基金投资风险识别与价值影响量化研究——以招商局商业房托基金为例

Study on the Identification of Investment Risks and Quantification of Value Impact of REITs:Taking China Merchants Commercial REITs as an Example

REITs底层资产类型的扩容及已上市REITs的扩募,均需要不断对各类型、各时期的REITs底层资产价值进行审视,REITs价值评估变得至关重要,其中对投资风险的分析及其对投资价值的影响成为一个关键问题。文章分析REITs投资的风险来源,识别其主要宏观及微观风险,发现在美国、新加坡和中国香港REITs市场上宏观经济及资本市场对REITs投资收益的波动影响较小,主要风险来自微观层面。进而基于这些风险来源讨论REITs投资价值确定中主要风险度量参数—折现率的确定问题,提出三种公募REITs折现率的测算方法:基于同类上市房企β值的累加法、物业资本化率平均调整法、同类REITs收益率类比法。并以招商局商业房托基金(1503.HK)为例,采用三种方法量化其IPO定价中的折现率,为REITs投融资中合理估值的确定提供理论依据与实践建议。

The expansion of REITs'underlying asset types and the expansion of listed REITs both require constant review of the underlying asset values of REITs of all types and periods,and REITs'value assessment has become critical,with the analysis of investment risks and their impact on investment values becoming a key issue.This paper analyses the sources of risk in REITs investment,identifies its main macro and micro risks,and finds that the impact of macro economy and capital market on the volatility of REITs investment returns is relatively small in the REITs market in the United States,Singapore and Chinese Hong Kong,and the major risks come from the micro level.Based on these risk sources,we discuss the determination of the discount rate,which is the main risk measurement parameter in the determination of REITs'investment value,and proposes three kinds of methods for measuring the discount rate of public REITs:the accumulation method based on theβ-value of similar listed real estate enterprises,the average adjustment method of property capitalization rates,and the yield analogy method for similar REITs.Taking China Merchants Commercial real estate fund(1503.HK)as an example,three methods are proposed to quantify the discount rate in its IPO pricing,which provides theoretical basis and practical suggestions for the determination of reasonable valuation in REITs investment and financing.