洞庭湖流域生态系统服务供需时空演变与情景预测

Temporal and Spatial Evolution and Multi-Scenario of Ecosystem Services Supply and Demand in Dongting Lake Basin

为促进区域生态系统服务供需平衡,以洞庭湖流域为研究对象,基于2000、2010、2020年土地利用数据探究土地利用变化及生态系统服务演变特征,并借助GeoSOS-FLUS、GM模型评估预测2030年不同发展情景下生态系统服务供需时空演化格局。结果显示:(1)2000~2020年洞庭湖流域土地利用变化最明显的特征是建设用地增加,林地和耕地面积减少,生态系统服务供给整体呈下降趋势,显著减少的区域主要分布在洞庭湖、长株潭周边县市及部分地市城区;(2)自然发展和耕地保护情景下2030年生态价值较高的草地和林地持续减少,建设用地增加,生态系统服务呈现全域快速退化趋势,生态保护情景下土地利用格局相对稳定,林地和水域出现上涨趋势,长株潭城市群及其他地市市区生态系统服务价值也呈现增长趋势;(3)三类情景下长株潭城市群、洞庭湖生态经济区等流域下游区域生态系统服务需求相对较高,而这些区域生态系统服务供给却较低且呈退化趋势,供需格局具有显著空间不匹配特征。

In order to promote the balance between supply and demand of regional ecosystem services,this paper takes Dongting Lake Basin as the research object,explores the land use change and the evolution characteristics of ecosystem services based on the land use data in 2000,2010 and 2020,and evaluates and predicts the spatio-temporal evolution pattern of ecosystem services supply and demand under different development scenarios in 2030 with the help of GeoSOS-FLUS and GM models.The results show that:(1)The most obvious characteristics of land use change in Dongting Lake Basin from 2000 to 2020 are the increase of construction land,the decrease of forest land and cultivated land area,and the overall supply of ecosystem services shows a downward trend,and the significantly reduced areas are mainly distributed in Dongting Lake,surrounding counties and cities of Changsha,Zhuzhou and Xiangtan,and some urban areas;(2)In 2030,grasslands and woodlands with high ecological value will continue to decrease,construction land will increase,and ecosystem services will be rapidly degraded in the whole region.In the ecological protection scenario,the land use pattern will be relatively stable,woodlands and waters will be on the rise,and the value of ecosystem services in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration and other cities will also be on the rise.(3)Under the three scenarios,the demand for ecosystem services in the lower reaches of the Yangtze-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration and Dongting Lake eco-economic zone is relatively high,while the supply of ecosystem services in these areas is low and tends to deteriorate,and the pattern of supply and demand has obvious spatial mismatch characteristics.