跨区域环境规制降低碳排放的政策效应分析——基于长三角协同发展政策的准自然实验

Policy Effect Analysis of Cross-regional Environmental Regulations on Carbon Emission Reduction:A Quasi-natural Experiment Based on Coordinated Development Policies in the Yangtze River Delta

分权制度下环境规制成为地区间流动性资源争夺的博弈手段,跨区域环境规制则因缺乏强制约束能力其效用与作用机制仍有待验证。选取区域协同发展政策这一跨区域环境规制,基于2007~2019年我国273个地级市面板数据,选用双向固定模型倾向得分匹配后进行双重差分分析,实证检验了区域协同发展政策对碳排放的影响效应及作用机制。结果表明,区域协同发展政策显著促进了城市降低碳排放,且经过一系列稳健性检验后结论依旧成立。机制检验结果表明,区域协同发展政策能够通过鼓励不同城市之间的合作与协调,促进资源的优化配置和产业的升级转型和加大科技要素投入,促进低碳技术的研发和应用,提高能源利用效率来降低碳排放。异质性分析得出政策效果会随试点城市规模、财政水平异质性而产生差异,其中城市人口规模更大的城市在低碳产业发展、绿色技术应用等方面具有更强的竞争优势,财政支出水平更高的城市通过培育和引进先进的低碳技术,提供资金支持和激励措施,促进低碳产业的发展,并投入更多的资金用于基础设施建设,使区域协同发展政策能发挥更为明显的降低碳排放的作用。

Under the fiscal decentralization system,environmental regulation has become a strategic means of competition for mobile resources between regions.Cross-regional environmental regulation,however,lacks mandatory binding capabilities,and its utility and operational mechanisms remain to be further validated.This study focused on the regional coordinated development policy as a form of cross-regional environmental regulation.Utilizing panel data from 273 prefecture-level cities in China from 2007 to 2019,a two-way fixed-effects model with propensity score matching was employed for a difference-in-differences analysis.The empirical examination was used to investigate the impact and mechanisms of the regional coordinated development policy on carbon emissions.The results indicated that the policy significantly promoted the reduction of carbon emissions in cities,and this conclusion was valid after a series of robustness tests.Mechanism analysis suggested that the effects of regional coordinated development policy be achieved by encouraging cooperation and coordination among different cities,optimizing resource allocation,facilitating industrial upgrading,increasing investment in technological elements,promoting the research and application of low-carbon technologies,and improving energy efficiency to reduce carbon emissions.Heterogeneous analysis revealed that the policy effects varied with the heterogeneity of pilot cities in terms of population size and fiscal levels.Larger cities with greater population sizes demonstrated stronger competitive advantages in the development of low-carbon industries and the application of green technologies.Cities with higher fiscal expenditures,on the other hand,promoted the development of low-carbon industries by nurturing and introducing advanced low-carbon technologies,providing financial support and incentive measures,and allocating more funds to infrastructure construction.These enhanced the effectiveness of regional coordinated development policy in reducing carbon emissions.