近20年国耕地转入时空格局变化及影响因素

Spatio-temporal Pattern Changes and Interfering Factors of Transferred Farmland in China in the Past 20 Years

厘清中国耕地转入时空格局特征及影响因素,对科学评估耕地转入的生态成本、耕地占补平衡政策实施成效和优化耕地空间分布格局等至关重要。研究基于2000~2020年土地利用和社会经济数据,采用重心迁移分析、空间自相关分析和多元线性回归分析等方法,揭示近20年国耕地转入时空分异特征与重心变化,探索不同地区耕地转入来源差异及关键影响因素。研究发现:(1)2000~2020年中国耕地转入面积为2 125.2万hm^(2),总体上呈“东北—西北高、南部少”的空间格局,其重心逐渐向西北方向迁移,西部地区一直是我国耕地转入最重要区域;(2)近20年国耕地转入主要来源是林地和草地,占耕地转入总面积的73.5%。但不同时段耕地转入来源呈显著的空间不均衡特征;(3)中国耕地转入受自然条件(气温、坡度)、社会经济(农业机械总动力、第二产业增加值、路网密度)和区域政策(林业增加值、建设用地增加量)的综合影响,但不同区域关键影响因子有显著差异。研究结果对有效管控耕地转入类型、优化耕地保护政策和制度创新等具有指导意义。

It is very important to clarify the characteristics and their influencing factors of the spatial and temporal pattern of transferred cultivated land in China for scientifically evaluating the ecological cost of transferred cultivated land,the effectiveness of the cultivated land requisition-compensation policy and optimizating the spatial distribution pattern of cultivated land.Based on the data of land use and socio-economic from 2000 to 2020,this study revealed the spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics and center of gravity changes of transferred farmland in China in the past 20 years.The differences in sources and key influencing factors of transferred farmland in different regions were explored,using the methods of center of gravity transfer analysis,spatial autocorrelation analysis,and multiple linear regression analysis.The results showed that:(1)the transferred farmland area was 21.252 million square hectares from 2000 to 2020,with an overall spatial pattern of"higher in the northeast and northwest,and less in the south".Moreover,the key point of transferred farmland was gradually transferred towards the northwest,with the western region being the most important area for transferred farmland;(2)In the past 20 years,forest land and grassland were the main sources of transferred farmland,accounting for 73.5%of the total transferred farmland.However,the sources of transferred farmland presented significant spatial imbalances at different stages;(3)The transferred farmland was comprehensively affected by natural conditions(temperature,slope),socio-economic factors(total power of agricultural machinery,added value of secondary industry,road network density),and regional policies(added value of forestry,added amount of construction land),whereas the key influencing factors showed significant differences among different regions.These results provided important guiding value for effectively managing and controlling the types of cultivated land transfer,optimizing cultivated land protection policies and system innovation.