经济政策不确定性对雾霾的影响——基于跨国面板数据的分析

On the Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Haze Pollution--An Analysis Based on Cross-country Panel Data

文章采用2003—2021年25个国家的面板数据,运用双向固定效应模型、异质性模型、分位数回归模型、中介效应模型,研究经济政策不确定性对雾霾污染的影响。经过理论分析和实证检验,结果表明:经济政策不确定性增加,会使雾霾污染降低。异质性检验和分位数回归发现经济政策的不确定性对各国雾霾的影响具有异质性,对发展中国家的影响更显著。中介效应检验表明城市化的集聚效应和技术进步效应将显著减少雾霾污染。改变经济政策不确定性指标的测量方法、增加控制变量、进行截尾处理并使用2SLS方法来估计模型等系列检验表明结果是稳健的。文章最后对降低雾霾污染提出了加强对污染企业监管等政策建议。

With the panel data from 25 countries between 2003 and 2021,this paper employs a two-way fixed effects model,a heterogeneity model,a quantile regression model and a mediation model to study the impact of the economic policy uncertainty on haze pollution.Through theoretical analysis and empirical testing,the results indicate that an increase in economic policy uncertainty leads to a decrease in haze pollution.The heterogeneity tests and quantile regressions reveal that the impact of economic policy uncertainty on haze pollution varies from country to country,with a more significant effect observed in developing countries.Mediation effect tests suggest that urban agglomeration and technological progress significantly reduce haze pollution.A series of tests,including changing the measurement method for economic policy uncertainty indicators,adding control variables,truncating and using the 2SLS method to estimate the model confirm the robustness of the results.This paper also proposes policy recommendations to reduce haze pollution such as strengthening the supervision of polluting enterprises.