中国对欧盟出口隐含碳及驱动因素:省级尺度分析

Embodied carbon emissions in China’s exports to the European Union and driving factors:A provincial-scale analysis

本文构建中国分省–世界多区域嵌套投入产出表,从省级尺度测算中国对欧盟出口隐含碳排放,并利用结构分解分析进一步研究隐含碳变动的驱动因素.结果显示,2017年中国对欧出口隐含碳排放为2.49亿吨,相当于中国碳排放总量2.45%;隐含碳的省级分布差异明显,江苏、广东、山东、河北、浙江、辽宁和内蒙古这七个千万吨以上的省份合计占56%;与欧盟碳边境调节机制直接相关的基础金属、金属制品、非金属矿物制品、化工业四个行业对欧出口隐含碳为2144万吨,占中国对欧出口隐含碳9%.从2012年到2017年,中国对欧出口隐含碳减少了1662万吨,12个省份对欧出口隐含碳增加,18个省份实现减少;生产结构效应或直接碳强度效应是绝大部分省份隐含碳变动的首要驱动因素.本文的研究结果可为中国管理隐含碳及未来应对欧盟碳边境调节提供一定的参考.

This study constructs a Chinese provincial-world multi-regional nested input-output table to estimate China’s embodied carbon emissions in exports to the European Union(EU)at the provincial scale,and furthers investigates the driving factors of embodied carbon emissions changes using structural decomposition analysis.The results show that China embodied carbon emissions in exports to the EU in 2017 were 249 MtCO_(2),equivalent to 2.45%of China’s carbon emissions.The provincial distribution of embodied carbon emissions varies significantly,with seven provinces—Jiangsu,Guangdong,Shandong,Hebei,Zhejiang,Liaoning,and Inner Mongolia which all exported more than 10 MtCO_(2)-together accounting for 56%of China’s total embodied carbon emissions in exports to the EU.The four industries directly related to the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism—basic metals,metal products,non-metallic mineral products,and chemical industry—exported 21.44 MtCO_(2) to the EU,accounting for 9% of China’s total.From 2012 to 2017,China’s embodied carbon emissions in exports to the EU decreased by 16.62 MtCO_(2),with 12 provinces increasing their embodied carbon emissions and 18 provinces realizing a decrease.The production structure effect or the direct carbon intensity effect is the primary driving factor of embodied carbon emissions changes in most provinces.The results of this study could provide some references for China to manage embodied carbon emissions and address the EU’s carbon border adjustment in the future.