择机而动:欧洲对战略自主的追求

Waiting in the Wings:The EU’s Quest for Strategic Autonomy

机会窗口理论为解释欧洲追求战略自主的时机与条件提供了一个视角。决策者通常认为机会窗口存续时间短且趋向缩小,因此务必在有限时间内把握良机进行决策。追求战略自主的机会窗口的开启受到盟国自助能力的提升、体系环境的变化和突发事件三重因素的影响。从冷战至今,欧洲追求战略自主的实践经历了突破冷战格局、对抗单极格局、试图成为关键第三方三个阶段,并受到上述因素不同程度的影响。欧洲在经济转型、规范制定和安全防务上取得一定进展,但由于受到自助能力、跨大西洋关系和乌克兰危机的限制,其战略自主的成果有限。通过梳理欧洲择机而动追求战略自主的历程,从机会窗口视角解释欧洲追求战略自主的时机与条件,不仅可以对欧洲追求战略自主的前景进行预测,而且可以为中国如何在中美欧三边关系的博弈中赢得战略主动提供借鉴。

Using the window of opportunity theory,this paper seeks to explain the conditions under which and how Europe can pursue strategic autonomy.Decision makers usually perceive the window of opportunity as short and shrinking,and have a stronger urge to pursue strategic autonomy because of the need to take advantage of the limited time available.The opening of the window of opportunity is influenced by the triple factors of increasing self-help capabilities,changes in the systemic environment,and the emergence of unexpected events.After the end of World War II,Europe has always had the will and behavior to pursue strategic autonomy,and has shown different characteristics at different times.From the Cold War to the present,Europe’s autonomy practice has gone through three stages of breaking through the Cold War pattern,confronting the unipolar pattern,and attempting to become a key third party,and has been affected by the above factors to varying degrees at each stage.Europe has made some achievements in economic transformation,norm-setting,and security and defense,but there are limits to its pursuit of strategic autonomy due to the constraints of self-help capabilities,the Ukraine crisis,and transatlantic relations.By analyzing the history of Europe’s pursuit of strategic autonomy in a pragmatic manner,we can not only rationally explain and predict the current and future status and prospects of Europe’s quest,but also provide lessons for China on how to win the strategic initiative in the game of the China-United States-Europe triangle.