赣东北丘陵地区县域耕地非农化和非粮化驱动机制及预警

Driving Mechanism and Early Warning of Non-agriculture and Non-grain Cultivated Land in Northeastern Hilly Areas of Jiangxi Province

[目的]探究江西省上饶市铅山县耕地非农化和非粮化的空间分异特征及其驱动机制,模拟土地利用变化格局以作出预警,为严格落实耕地用途管制措施提供科学依据和决策支持。[方法]以铅山县2017年和2021年的土地利用数据为基础,利用空间计量模型识别耕地非农化和非粮化的驱动机制,借助PLUS模型预测耕地变化情况,根据预测结果进一步划定预警级别。[结果](1)铅山县耕地非农化和非粮化空间分异特征明显,耕地总体变化率和非粮化率高值区聚集在县域北部的河谷平原和南部的武夷山北麓山区,低值区分布在县域东西两侧;耕地非农化率高值区分布较为零散,低值区相对连片。(2)耕地利用等级和人均耕地面积是抑制耕地非农化的重要因素,城乡梯度、道路密度与非农化率和非粮化率呈正相关,人均建设用地面积、耕地后备资源对非农化率存在正向影响。(3)多情景模拟结果显示,自然发展情景下建设用地扩张导致耕地数量大幅度减少,耕地管制情景下耕地连片性提高,生态保护情景下存在林地挤压耕地资源的情况。(4)铅山县耕地非农化处于适度预警以上的行政村主要聚集在县域南部乡镇,耕地非粮化预警级别的高值区普遍集中在县域北部乡镇。[结论]未来应积极推进高标准农田建设,建立耕地保护补偿机制,提高乡镇集约节约用地水平,开展全域土地综合整治,完善耕地流转制度,落实耕地“占补平衡”和“进出平衡”的耕地用途管制措施。

[Objective]The spatial differentiation characteristics of non-agriculture and non-grain cultivated land in Yanshan County,Shangrao City,Jiangxi Province,and their driving mechanism were determined,and the land use change pattern for early warning was simulated,in order to provide a scientific basis and decision-making support for the strict implementation of cultivated land use control measures.[Methods]Based on the land use data of Yanshan County in 2017 and 2021,the spatial econometric model was used to identify the driving mechanism of farmland non-agriculture and non-grain conversion,and the cultivated land change was predicted by the PLUS model,and the warning level was further defined according to the forecast results.[Results](1)The spatial differentiation characteristics of non-agriculture and non-grain cultivated land in Yanshan County was obvious.The areas with high values of the overall rate of cultivated land change and the rate change of non-grain cultivated land were clustered in the valley plains in the north of the county and in Wuyi Mountains in the south.The low-value areas were located on the east and west sides of the county.The distribution of the high-value areas of rate of change of non-agriculture cultivated land was more fragmented,and the low-value areas were relatively continuous.(2)Cultivated land utilization grade and per capita cultivated land area were important factors inhibiting the non-agriculture of cultivated land.Urban-rural gradient and road density were positively correlated with the rate of non-agriculture and non-grain.Per capita cultivated land area and cultivated land reserve resources had a positive effect on the rate of non-agriculture.(3)The results of the multi-scenario simulation showed that the expansion of construction land led to a significant reduction in the amount of cultivated land in the natural development scenario.The contiguity of cultivated land increased in the cultivated land control scenario.There was a situation in which forested land squeezed the cultivated land resources in the ecological protection scenario.(4)Administrative villages with the moderate warning level for non-agriculture cultivated land were mainly clustered in townships in the southern part of the county,and the areas with high values of the warning level for non-grain cultivated land were generally concentrated in townships in the northern part of the county.[Conclusion]In the future,we should actively promote the construction of high-standard farmland,establish a compensation mechanism for cultivated land protection,improve the degree of land intensification and conservation in townships,carry out comprehensive land improvement in the entire region,improve the system of cultivated land transfer,and implement the control measures for the use of cultivated land with a balance between“occupation and compensation”and“balance between import and export”.