2000—2021年青海省农牧业碳排放驱动因素及脱钩效应

Driving Factors and Decoupling Effects of Carbon Emissions from Agriculture and Animal Husbandry in Qinghai Province During 2000—2021

[目的]明确青海省农牧业碳排放特征及驱动因素,为青海省科学有序推进农牧业绿色低碳发展提供理论与数据支撑。[方法]从农用物资消耗、畜禽养殖和作物生长3个方面测算青海省2000—2021年农牧业碳排放,在此基础上运用对数平均迪氏指数(LMDI)和Tapio脱钩模型探讨农牧业碳排放的驱动因素及脱钩状态,并预测2022—2035年农牧业碳排放的未来趋势。[结果](1)2000—2021年,青海省农牧业碳排放呈波动上升趋势,年均增长率为1.61%,畜禽养殖过程中的肠道发酵和粪便管理是青海省农牧业碳排放的主要来源,年均占比94.94%。(2)农业经济发展水平效应和农业结构效应促进青海省农牧业碳排放的增加,年均贡献率为39.40%和16.53%;农业生产技术效应和农业劳动力规模效应抑制青海省农牧业碳排放的增加,年均贡献率为-37.45%和-6.63%。(3)整体来看,青海省农牧业碳排放与农牧业经济增长的脱钩状态为弱脱钩,农业生产技术和农业劳动力规模对青海省农牧业碳排放为弱脱钩效应,农业结构无脱钩效应。(4)2022—2035年青海省农牧业碳排放量将呈增长趋势,年均增长率为1.23%,较2000—2021年下降0.38%。[结论]青海省应增强农田土壤固碳能力,降低畜禽产品肠道甲烷排放强度,强化农牧业减排固碳科技引领,培养农牧业高素质人才,实现农牧业低碳发展。

[Objective]The carbon emission characteristics and driving factors of agriculture and animal husbandry in Qinghai Province were analyzed in order to provide theoretical and empirical evidence for Qinghai government on how to promote the scientific and orderly development of green and low-carbon development of agriculture and animal husbandry.[Methods]Carbon emissions from agriculture and animal husbandry in Qinghai Province during 2000—2021 were calculated from consumption of agricultural materials,livestock and poultry breeding,and crop growth.The methods of log-mean Dietrich index(LMDI)and Tapio decoupling models were used to examine the driving factors and decoupling state of carbon emissions from agriculture and animal husbandry,and the future development tendency from 2022 to 2035 was predicted.[Results](1)Carbon emissions from agriculture and animal husbandry in Qinghai Province showed a fluctuating upward trend during 2000—2021,with an average annual growth rate of 1.61%.Intestinal fermentation and manure management during livestock and poultry breeding were the main sources of carbon emissions,accounting for 94.94%of total emissions per year.(2)The effect of the level of agricultural economic development and agricultural structure could increase the amount carbon emissions,with annual contribution rates of 39.40%and 16.53%.The effects of agricultural production technology and agricultural labor force could inhibit carbon emissions,with annual contribution rates of-37.45%and-6.63%.(3)On the whole,the decoupling state between carbon emissions and economic growth of agricultural and animal husbandry in Qinghai Province was characterized as weak decoupling.Agricultural production technology and agricultural labor force scale had weak decoupling effects,while agricultural structure had no decoupling effects.(4)From 2022 to 2035,the carbon emissions from agriculture and animal husbandry will show an increasing trend,with an average annual growth rate of 1.23%,and 0.38%lower than observed from 2000 to 2021.[Conclusion]Qinghai Province should increase carbon sequestration capacity of farmland soil,reduce the intensity of intestinal methane emissions from livestock and poultry products,strengthen the leadership of carbon reduction and fixation technology in agriculture and animal husbandry,and cultivate high-quality talents in agriculture and animal husbandry,and therefore to achieve low-carbon development in agriculture and animal husbandry.