2000—2020年青岛市区域碳排放时空演变特征及影响因素

Temporal and Spatial Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Regional Carbon Emission in Qingdao City During 2000—2020

[目的]分析山东省青岛市区域碳排放时空演变及影响因素,为推动低碳发展和碳减排工作提供理论基础。[方法]基于青岛市2000—2020年的土地利用数据、夜间灯光数据、社会经济数据等,对青岛市土地利用碳排放进行核算,通过构建碳排放与夜间灯光值的拟合模型,揭示青岛市不同用地类型的碳排放空间分布差异和变化趋势,通过Tapio脱钩模型分析青岛市碳排放与经济发展之间的脱钩状态,并利用LMDI模型分析土地利用碳排放各影响因素的贡献程度。[结果](1)2000—2020年青岛市土地利用净碳排放量总体呈增长态势,从2000年1.31×10^(7)t增长到2020年3.65×10^(7)t,增长了近1.79倍。(2)青岛市碳排放总量整体呈现“中间高,四周低”的空间分布格局,工业能耗是建设用地最主要的碳排放来源,高碳排放区域主要集中在胶州湾区域。(3)青岛市经济发展和碳排放的关系经历了从“扩张连结—弱脱钩—强脱钩”状态的转变。(4)促进青岛市碳排放增长的因素为人口规模和经济效应,抑制青岛市碳排放增长的因素为能源结构和能源强度。[结论]未来需要进一步调整产业结构,加快发展低碳经济,通过创新技术、调整能源结构等措施,从源头上减少碳排放。

[Objective]The temporal and spatial evolution and influencing factors of regional carbon emission in Qingdao City,Shandong Province were analyzed in order to provide a theoretical basis for promoting low-carbon development and carbon emission reduction.[Methods]Based on land use data,nighttime light data,and social and economic data of Qingdao City from 2000 to 2020,carbon emissions from land use were calculated.By constructing a fitting model between carbon emissions and nighttime light values,the spatial distribution difference and trend of carbon emissions of different land use types in Qingdao City were revealed.The decoupling status between carbon emissions and economic development in Qingdao City was analyzed using the Tapio decoupling model.The contribution degree of various influencing factors of land use carbon emissions was analyzed by using LMDI models.[Results](1)The net carbon emissions from land use in Qingdao City generally showed an increasing trend from 1.31×10^(7)t in 2000 to 3.65×10^(7)t in 2020,amounting to an increase of nearly 1.79 times.(2)The overall carbon emissions in Qingdao City presented a spatial distribution pattern of“higher in the middle and lower in the surrounding areas”.Industrial energy consumption was the main source of carbon emissions from construction land,with high carbon emission areas mainly concentrated in the Jiaozhou Bay area.(3)The relationship between economic development and carbon emissions in Qingdao City had undergone a transition from“expanding connections”to“weak decoupling”,then“strong decoupling”.(4)The factors that promoted growth of carbon emissions in Qingdao City were population size and economic effect,and the factors that inhibited growth of carbon emissions in Qingdao City were energy structure and energy intensity.[Conclusion]In the future,it will be necessary to further adjust the industrial structure,accelerate the development of a low-carbon economy,and reduce carbon emissions from sources through measures such as technological innovation and energy structure adjustment.