京津冀地区碳排放时空分异格局及减排优化路径

Spatiotemporal Differentiation Pattern and Emission Reduction Optimization Path of Carbon Emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

[目的]分析京津冀地区农业碳排放的时空分异特征,探索碳减排优化路径,为低碳农业发展提供决策参考。[方法]根据IPCC指南测算农业碳排放量,并在此基础上采用趋势分析法研究京津冀地区农业碳排放线性变化规律,采用ArcGIS断点分析法和核密度法分析京津冀6大农业区的空间演进趋势。[结果]从时间上看,京津冀农业碳排放量和碳排放强度整体呈下降趋势,尤其是碳排放强度自2005年开始快速下降。与全国相比,虽然农业碳排放总量占比小,但是碳排放强度高于全国水平,其中坝上农业区和冀南农业区的碳排放水平最高。从空间上看,远离京津的坝上农业区北部,冀中原农业区和冀南农业区部分县域碳排放强度较高,而京津近郊农业区以及与其相邻的坝上农业区南部则保持轻低度排放状态。此外,根据核密度分析的结果,6大农业区整体碳排放强度在降低,其中京津近郊农业区和冀中平原农业区碳排放强度内部差异化程度较大。[结论]京津冀3省6大农业区应基于农业定位和资源禀赋在减碳和增汇两方面开展区域合作。未来应进一步考虑跨行业农业减碳合作。

[Objective]The spatiotemporal differentiation of agricultural carbon emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was analyzed,and the optimal path of carbon emission reduction was explored in order to provide a decision-making reference for low-carbon agricultural development.[Methods]Agricultural carbon emissions were calculated based on the IPCC guidelines.Trend analysis was used to determine the linear changes in agricultural carbon emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.ArcGIS breakpoint analysis and the kernel density method were used to analyze the spatial evolution trends of the six major agricultural regions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.[Results]Overall carbon emissions and carbon intensity of agriculture in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region showed a downward trend over time,especially carbon emission intensity that had been rapidly decreased since 2005.Although the proportion of total agricultural carbon emissions was small in this region,the carbon emission intensity was higher than the national level,with the highest carbon emission levels in the Bashang agricultural zone and the Jinan agricultural zone.From a spatial perspective,the northern part of the Bashang agricultural area,far from Beijing and Tianjin,as well as some counties in the central plains and Southern Hebei agricultural areas,had higher carbon emission intensity.However,the suburban agricultural area of Beijing and Tianjin,as well as the southern part of the adjacent Bashang agricultural area,maintained a light and low emission status.In addition,according to the results of nuclear density analysis,the overall carbon emission intensity of the six major agricultural regions was decreasing,with a greater degree of internal differentiation in carbon emission intensity between the Beijing-Tianjin suburban agricultural region and the Hebei central plain agricultural region.[Conclusion]The six major agricultural regions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region should be engaged in regional cooperation with regard to carbon reduction and sink enhancement based on agricultural positioning and resource endowments.In the future,further consideration should be given to cross industry agricultural carbon reduction cooperation.