考虑土体参数不确定性的新型挡土墙可靠性分析

Reliability Analysis of a New Retaining Wall Considering Soil Parameter Uncertainty

【目的】为克服新型挡墙稳定性安全评估中传统确定性分析存在的缺陷,需要对考虑土体参数不确定性的新型挡土墙可靠性进行分析。【方法】首先,通过概率分布表达岩土参数的不确定性,计算新型挡墙的抗倾稳定和抗滑稳定。其次,通过神经网络和蒙特卡罗模拟,执行新型挡土墙可靠性分析,定量给出新型挡土墙可靠性指标。最后,通过参数敏感性分析,明确各参数对新型挡土墙安全性影响的重要程度。【结果】结果表明,新型挡土墙稳定性好,但存在一定优化空间,确定性分析结果较为保守。【结论】不同参数对新型挡土墙安全影响各不相同,应准确估计填土内摩擦角,保证挡土墙稳定性。研究成果为新型挡土墙可靠性分析提供了思路和方法。

[Purposes]In order to overcome the shortcomings of the traditional deterministic analysis on the stability safety assessment of the new retaining wall,it is necessary to analyze the reliability of the new retaining wall considering the uncertainty of soil parameters.[Methods]Fristly,this paper expresses the uncertainty of soil parameters through probability distribution and calculates the overturning stability and sliding stability of the new retaining wall.Secondly,through neural networks and Monte Carlo simula⁃tions,reliability analysis of the new retaining wall is performed,providing quantitative reliability indica⁃tors.Finally,through parameter sensitivity analysis,the importance of each parameter on the safety of the new retaining wall is clearly identified.[Findings]The results indicate that although the new retaining wall has good stability,there is room for optimization,and the deterministic analysis results are conserva⁃tive.[Conclusions]Different parameters have varying impacts on the safety of the new retaining wall.Ac⁃curate estimation of the internal friction angle of the backfill soil should be ensured to guarantee the sta⁃bility of the retaining wall.The research approach of this paper provides ideas and methods for the reli⁃ability analysis of the new retaining wall.