现代化产业体系水平测度及空间差异研究

Research on the Measurement of the Modern Industrial System Level and Spatial Differences

本文从实体经济、科技创新、现代金融和人力资源四个关键维度构建评价指标体系,采用主客观相结合的赋权方法,对2017—2021年间我国31个省(区、市)的现代化产业体系水平进行了测度,从全国和区域角度分析了现代化产业体系的发展特征,并进一步利用Dagum基尼系数分解法、Kernal密度估计法等工具,探讨了四大区域及南北两大地区现代化产业体系水平的时空演变特征。研究结果显示,考察期内我国现代化产业体系水平持续提升,尽管空间分布上仍呈现“东高西低”的不均衡特征,但整体呈现出积极的追赶态势。各省份现代化产业体系水平的空间集聚效应显著;从区域差异来看,各省份之间的发展相对差距缩小,但绝对差异仍有扩大之势。为进一步推动现代化产业体系建设和发展,建议因地制宜制定差异化的发展策略,充分发挥先进省份的示范和带动作用,更好发挥科技、资本和劳动等要素对实体经济的支撑作用。

This article constructs an evaluation index system from four key dimensions:real economy,technological innovation,modern finance,and human resources.Using a combined subjective and objective weighting method,we calculate the level of the modern industrial system in 31 provinces(autonomous regions,municipalities)in China from 2017 to 2021.We analyze the development characteristics of the modern industrial system from both national and regional perspectives.Furthermore,by utilizing tools including the Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition method and the Kernel density estimation method,we explore the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the modern industrial system level among different regions of China.Results show that the level of modern industrial system continues to improve with an uneven spatial distribution,which is improving overall,and there is a significant spatial agglomeration effect.In terms of regional differences,the relative gap among provinces has narrowed,but the absolute difference still tends to widen.To further promote the development of the modern industrial system,it is recommended to formulate differentiated development strategies according to local conditions,fully leverage the exemplary and leading role of advanced provinces,and better utilize the supporting role of elements such as technology,capital,and human resources for the real economy.