“双碳”背景下黄石市农业碳排放特征及脱钩效应研究

Study on characteristics of agricultural carbon emissions and decoupling effects in Huangshi under the background of“double carbon”

研究工业城市黄石市农业碳排放特征、驱动因素与脱钩效应,可为黄石市农业、工业等领域制定差异化碳减排政策提供理论参考,以促进农业低碳发展。基于碳排放系数法、LMDI模型、Tapio脱钩模型分析了黄石市农业碳排放量及其主要影响因素和脱钩效应。结果表明:1)2000~2021年黄石市农业碳排放总体上表现为先上升后迅速下降的倒“U”型变化态势。2)经济发展水平因素是促使黄石市农业碳排放的主要因素;经济发展水平因素和劳动力因素正向驱动农业碳排放,农业生产效率因素和农业产业结构因素抑制农业碳排放。3)黄石市农业碳排放脱钩状态有弱脱钩和强脱钩两种。4)黄石市农业碳汇总量呈现增加的趋势,净碳汇强度整体表现为增长的变化特征,黄石市农业碳减排已取得一定的成效,今后应深入发展绿色低碳农业,为实现“双碳”目标贡献力量。

This paper aims to analyze the time-series characteristics,driving mechanisms,and decoupling effects of agricultural carbon emissions in Huangshi,an industrial city.The findings will serve as a theoretical basis for the formulation of targeted carbon emission reduction policies on the agricultural and industrial sectors in Huangshi so as to promote its low-carbon agricultural development.This paper analyzes the agricultural carbon emissions in Huangshi and its main influencing factors and decoupling effects based on the carbon emission coefficient method,LMDI model,and Tapio decoupling model.The results show that 1)The overall trend of agricultural carbon emissions in Huangshi presents an inverted“U”shape,with an initial increase followed by a rapid decrease.2)The economic development level is the main factor contributing to agricultural carbon emissions in Huangshi;economic development level and labor force have a positive effect on agricultural carbon emissions while agricultural production efficiency and agricultural industrial structure inhibit agricultural carbon emissions.3)There are two types of decoupling status for agricultural carbon emissions in Huangshi:weak decoupling and strong decoupling.4)The total amount of agricultural carbon sinks in Huangshi shows an increasing trend,so does the over all net carbon intensity.Huangshi has achieved certain remarkable results in its agricultural carbon emission reduction and in the future,it will further develop its green and low-carbon agriculture to contribute to the realization of the“double-carbon”goal.