昌吉绿洲春播期膜内外浅层地温变化的分析与预测

Analysis and Prediction of Shallow Soil Temperature Changes Inside and Outside the Film During Spring Sowing in Changji Oasis

【目的】分析昌吉绿洲春播期日平均气温与5 cm、10 cm膜内外浅层地温的变化规律,构建膜内外浅层地温预测模型并检验。【方法】通过安装自动气象监测站,对昌吉绿洲2022年4月0~20 cm膜内外浅层地温进行逐日观测,采用相关分析、回归分析法分析其变化特征。将2010—2022年春播期日平均气温及地温作为基础数据进行回归分析,构建了昌吉绿洲春播期膜内外浅层地温预测模型,并代入2023年春播期地温、气温数据进行检验。【结果】(1)昌吉绿洲春播期日平均气温与5 cm、10 cm膜内外平均地温相关性显著,其变化趋势具有较好的一致性,膜内外浅层地温高度相关;(2)春播期气温变化存在较大的波动性,但整体呈现逐渐回暖增温趋势。5 cm、10 cm膜内地温明显高于地温,随着深度的增加,地温对气温变化的反应呈减弱态势。【结论】回代检验证明,浅层地温预测模型计算结果与实际值的拟合效果较好,具备实用价值。

In order to analyze the variation law of daily average temperature and shallow soil temperature inside and outside the 5 cm film and 10 cm film during spring sowing period in Changji Oasis,a prediction model of shallow soil temperature inside and outside the film is constructed and tested.Through the installation of automatic meteorological monitoring stations,the shallow soil temperature inside and outside the 0~20 cm film in Changji Oasis was observed every day in April 2022,and its variation characteristics are analyzed by means of correlation and regression analysis.The daily average temperature and soil temperature in the spring sowing period from 2010 to 2022 are used as the basic data for regression analysis.The prediction model is established,and then the soil temperature data of the spring sowing period in 2023 is substituted into the model for testing.The results show that:(1) The daily average temperature during the spring sowing period in Changji Oasis is significantly correlated with the average soil temperature inside and outside the 5 cm film and 10 cm film,and their changing trends have good consistency.The shallow soil temperature inside and outside the film is highly correlated.(2) There is a significant fluctuation in temperature during the spring sowing period,but the overall trend is gradually warmer and warmer.The soil temperature inside the 5 cm film and 10 cm film is significantly higher than the soil temperature,and as the depth increases,the response of the soil temperature to air temperature shows a weakening trend.(3) The prediction model of shallow soil temperature inside and outside the film during spring sowing in Changji Oasis is constructed.The hindcast test proves that the calculation results of the shallow soil temperature prediction model have a good fitting effect with the observation,so the model has a practical value.