人-地系统动力学耦合模型研究的评述与展望

The comment and prospect of research on coupling models of human-Earth system dynamics

人-地系统动力学耦合模型研究是当前全球变化与地球系统科学领域的前沿科学问题,为可持续发展提供重要理论基础和研究工具.本文回顾总结了目前国内外“人-地系统耦合模型”的研究状况.分析认为:目前已有的人-地系统动力学耦合模型只是将人类社会经济系统模型和地球系统模式在计算机载体上的模拟耦合;这类耦合模型工作在全球变暖、未来CO_(2)排放趋势、土地利用变化、经济反馈方面取得了重要进展,但仍存在系统间反馈过程复杂性刻画不明确、时空尺度不匹配、极端事件的模拟能力差等难题.攻克以上难题,需要发展多样化反馈过程、采用中等复杂程度的地球系统建模思想、应用反映真实供求关系形成的狭义均衡化人类系统模型和极端事件响应化的人地系统耦合模型、构建统一数据集进行集合模拟试验.人-地系统动力学耦合模型的研究将为科学制定气候变化适应政策提供科学依据,有利于推动我国跻身地球系统科学的国际前沿.

The research of the human-Earth system dynamic coupling model has become a frontier scientific issue in the field ofglobal change and Earth system science. For a long time, the Earth system model and the socio-economic model haveindependently developed and achieved their own achievements. However, in the face of the complex human-Earth systemrelationship, the shortcomings of the two types of models are becoming increasingly prominent. Therefore, it is necessaryto combine the two models. This paper reviews and summarizes the current research status of “human-Earth systemcoupling model”, analyzes the existing problems, puts forward the ideas to solve the problems, and looks forward to thedevelopment direction and prospect.This paper holds that the human-Earth system is a complex system of interaction and mutual influence between thenatural Earth environment and human social economy. The definition of the human-Earth system model and the researchgoal of the model are not completely clear. The most basic understanding is that the human-Earth system model refers to thebidirectional coupling model between the human system model and the Earth system model. By constructing a dynamicmodel of the human-Earth system, we can reveal the dynamic evolution of the elements of the human-Earth system,analyze its process coupling mechanism, and clarify its optimal regulation approach. Only in this way can we scientificallydeal with the global change, with climate warming as the main feature, caused by human activities, and provide a solidtheoretical foundation for the sustainable development of mankind. Since the beginning of the 21st century, Chinesescientists have carried out exploration and research on the construction of human-Earth system dynamic coupling model,and achieved unique and innovative results.At present, the coupling model of human-Earth system dynamics involves the simulation coupling of human socioeconomicsystem model and Earth system model. This model has made important progress in the simulation and predictionof global warming, future CO_(2) emission trend, land use change, economic feedback, and other related aspects. However,there are still some imperfections, such as unclear characterization of the complexity of inter-system feedback processes,spatio-temporal scale mismatchs, and poor simulation ability of extreme events. This paper holds that in order to overcomethese above problems, future research should focus on the following aspects: (1) The diversification of informationtransmitted by the feedback process of the human-Earth system model;(2) the medium complex scale of the Earth systemmodel;(3) the narrow equalization and extreme event responsiveness of the human-Earth system model;(4) the extensionof the application of the human-Earth system model;and (5) constructing ensemble simulations of human-Earth systemmodel and unifying the drive data set.