农业科技创新对粮食生产韧性的影响

Study on the impact of agricultural science and technology innovation on the resilience of food production under the"double-cycle"development pattern

以中国2010—2021年省级面板数据为样本,使用熵权法测算农业科技创新和粮食体系韧性,并运用固定效应模型分析农业科技创新对粮食生产韧性的影响以及作用机制。研究表明:农业科技创新显著提升了粮食生产韧性,且空间溢出效应为正。异质性分析表明,相对于非粮食主产区和东部地区,农业科技创新对粮食主产区和中部地区的影响更大。进一步的机制分析发现,农业科技创新通过降低农用化肥施用量,提升农业机械化作业服务人员占比和农业机械化水平促进粮食生产韧性提升。因此,要不断强化科技创新的引领作用,加速农业要素替代,推动农业产业低碳绿色转型,引导创新辐射和技术溢出,发挥农业科技创新提升粮食生产韧性的良性驱动作用。

Taking China′s provincial panel data from 2010 to 2021 as a sample,the entropy weight method is used to measure and calculate the agricultural science and technology innovation and the resilience of grain production system.In addition,the fixed effects model is also applied to analyze the impact of agricultural sci-tech innovation on the resilience of grain production and the mechanism of action.The study shows that agricultural sci-tech innovation significantly improves the resilience of the grain production with a positive spatial spillover effect.Heterogeneity analyses show that agricultural sci-tech innovation has a greater impact on the major grain-producing regions and central China than on the non-major grain-producing regions and east China.Further mechanism analysis indicates that agricultural sci-tech innovation promotes grain production resilience by reducing the amount of chemical fertilizer applied in agriculture,increasing the share of agricultural mechanized operation service personnel and the level of agricultural mechanization.Therefore,it is necessary to continuously strengthen the leading role of sci-tech innovation,accelerate the substitution of agricultural factors,promote the transformation to low-carbon and green agricultural industry,and guide the radiation of innovation and technological spillover,so as to give full play to the role of agricultural sci-tech innovation in enhancing the grain production resilience.