基于改进Hotelling模型的民航与高铁竞合分析研究

Research on Hoteling Model of Competition and Cooperation between Civil Aviation and High-speed Rail

考虑了乘客偏好和社会福利,利用改进的Hotelling模型,建立了民航与高铁的竞争与合作模型,研究了高铁进入高速客运市场和社会福利占比等因素变动对民航与高铁运营商的定价、收益、市场份额以及竞合策略选择的影响。研究结果表明高铁进入高速客运市场后,对民航市场造成冲击,引起民航市场份额和收益下降;高铁定价中社会福利的占比和高铁速度均会对民航定价和市场份额产生影响。当民航和高铁在利润分配比满足相应条件时双方将有意向合作推进空铁联运,空铁联运的中转时间越短,吸引的客流越多。

A competitive and cooperative model between civil aviation and high-speed rail based on an improved Hotelling model was established,taking into account passenger preferences and social welfare.The impact of factors such as high-speed rail entry into the high-speed passenger market and changes in the proportion of social welfare on the pricing,revenues,market share,and competitive and cooperative strategy choices of civil aviation and high-speed rail operators was studied.The results show that the entry of highspeed rail into the high-speed passenger market has an impact on the civil aviation market,causing a decrease in civil aviation's market share and revenues.The proportion of social welfare in high-speed rail pricing and the speed of high-speed rail can also affect civil aviation's pricing and market share.When the profit distribution ratio between civil aviation and high-speed rail meets certain conditions,they cooperate in air-rail transportation.The shorter the transfer time of air-rail transportation,the more passenger traffic it attracts.