基于概率推理的大型无人机风险因素分析

Correlation Analysis of Risk Factors of Large UAV Based on Probabilistic Inference

为降低大型无人机安全风险事件发生的概率,研究无人机安全运行风险管理中风险因素的影响强度与事件发生后果的内在关联,有效识别无人机运行关键风险要素。基于52例典型大型无人机事故案例,进行无人机事故等级划分及风险因素识别归类。从概率推理角度对导致大型无人机事故发生的不确定性风险因素、条件概率变化进行分析,引入介入算子运用贝叶斯网络模型进行研究,得到无人机不同事故风险等级概率分布,并利用交叉验证法对模型的精准度和可靠性进行验证。明确造成无人机事故的风险因素中,直接影响到事故是否发生及其后果严重程度占比较大的是动力系统、能力水平、飞控系统。分别对其进行敏感性分析,最后对无人机运行安全提出针对性建议。

In order to reduce the probability of safety risk events of large uav,we study the internal correlation between the intensity of the risk factors and the consequences of UAV safety operation risk management,and effectively identify the key risk elements of uav operation.Based on 52 typical large UAV accidents,UAV accident classification and risk factors were classified.From the perspective of probability reasoning to cause large drone accident uncertainty risk factors,condition probability changes,introduces the interventional operator using Bayesian network model,get drones different accident risk level probability distribution,and using cross validation method to verify the accuracy and reliability of the model.Among the risk factors causing UAV accidents,the power system,capability level and flight control system are the ones that directly affect the occurrence of accidents and the severity of the consequences.The sensitivity analysis was carried out respectively,and some targeted suggestions were put forward for the safe operation of UAV.