俄罗斯积极措施:理论缘起、历史演进与局限性分析

Russian Active Measures:Theoretical Origins,Historical Evolution and Limitations Analysis

[研究目的]积极措施是俄罗斯塑造国家安全态势的重要情报手段。系统考察俄罗斯积极措施,有助于加强对俄罗斯谋略性情报工作的深刻认识。[研究方法]通过文献分析、比较研究、历史分析等方法,剖析积极措施的理论缘起,梳理积极措施的历史演进,阐释积极措施的局限性。[研究结论]积极措施的重要方面是进攻性反情报工作,本质是情报欺骗,理论内核是“反射控制”理论。积极措施最早可追溯至沙俄时期,后被苏联和俄联邦发展和继承。积极措施是对敌方形成非对称优势,塑造有利战略态势,实现战略性目标的重要情报手段。由于“反射控制”理论的不完善以及欺骗本身的风险和投机属性,积极措施也存在一定局限性。

[Research purpose]Active measures are an important intelligence tool in shaping Russia's national security posture.A systematic examination of Russian active measures can help to enhance insight into Russia's strategic intelligence work.[Research method]Through literature analysis,comparative research,historical analysis and other methods,we analyze the theoretical origin of active measures,sort out the historical evolution of active measures,and explain the limitations of active measures.[Research conclusion]An important aspect of active measures is offensive counterintelligence,which is essentially intelligence deception and is based on the theory of"reflex control".Active measures date back to the Tsarist period and were developed and inherited by the Soviet Union and the Russian Federation.Active measures are an important intelligence tool for creating asymmetric advantages over the enemy,shaping favorable strategic postures and achieving strategic goals.Due to the imperfections of the theory of"reflex control"and the risky and speculative nature of deception itself,there are certain limitations to active measures.