白羽番鸭产蛋率和累计产蛋量的曲线拟合分析

Curve fitting analysis on laying rate and total egg number of white-feather muscovy duck

试验旨在探索白羽番鸭的产蛋规律。运用伍德、分室和杨宁模型以及Logistic、Gompertz和Von Bertalanffy模型分别拟合27~48周龄的1 114羽白羽番鸭的产蛋率和累计产蛋量曲线,并分析比较实际观测值和各模型预测值。结果显示:(1)分室和杨宁模型2种产蛋率曲线模型拟合优度均高于0.830,杨宁模型拟合效果最好,而伍德模型的拟合效果最差,其R~2仅为0.4672。(2)3种累计产蛋量曲线模型拟合优度均高于0.990,其中Von Bertalanffy模型的R~2高达0.9985,拟合效果最佳。因此,杨宁模型和Von Bertalanffy模型分别是拟合白羽番鸭产蛋率和累计产蛋量曲线的最佳数学模型。

This experiment was conducted to investigate the laying rule of white-feather muscovy duck.A total of 1114 muscovy ducks aged from 27 to 48 weeks were studied.Three models,namely Wood,McMillan and Yang-Ning models,were used to fit the laying rate,and three models,named as Logistic model,Gompertz model and Von Bertallanffy model,were used to fit the total egg number.The fitting degree(R2)of each model was calculated,and the observed values and predicted values were compared and analyzed.The results showed that:(1)the R2 of McMillan and Yang-Ning models were above 0.830,and Yang-Ning model had the best fitting effect followed lastly by Wood model(R2=0.4672).(2)In respect of fitting curve of the total egg number,the goodness of fit for these three models was higher 0.990,and that for Von Bertalanffy model was as high as 0.9985.Therefore,the best models for fitting the laying rate and the total egg number curve of white-feather muscovy ducks are Yang-Ning model and Von Bertalanffy model,espectively.