基于极大熵法的三峡水库洪水预报误差分布规律

Error distribution of flood forecast in Three Gorges Reservoir based on maximum entropy method

深入研究洪水预报误差的分布规律具有很大的实用价值,可为水库调度决策的拟定提供辅助参考。通常的研究方法为正态分布法与对数正态分布法,但这类研究方法受人为主观性的影响较大。使用三峡水库2020-2022年入库洪水数据将洪水分为4个量级,建立三峡水库洪水洪量预报误差分布的极大熵模型,得出不同预见期下4个量级的洪水洪量预报相对误差的分布规律,结果表明:采用极大熵模型可以定量地获得三峡水库的洪水预报误差分布规律,具有较强的适用性且可进一步推广使用。

Conducting an in-depth study on the distribution patterns of flood forecast errors holds significant practical value as it can provide auxiliary support for formulating reservoir operat ion decisions.The conventional research methods involve using normal distribution method and lognormal distribution method.However,these methods are greatly influenced by subject ive human factors.This research divide the inllow flood data from 2020-2022 into four volume levels for the Three Gorges Reservoir.We will establish a maximum entropy model for the distribution of flood volume forecast errors in the Three Gorges Reservoir and obtain the dist ribution patterns of relative error in flood volume forecasts across different lead times for each of these four volume levels.Our results indicate that employing a maximum entropy model allows us to quantitatively determine the distribut ion patterns of flood forecast errors at Three Gorges Reservoir with.st rong applicability and potential for further extension and use.