产业增长和产业关联对中国经济增长的影响

The Impact of Fiscal Vertical Imbalance on the Effectiveness of Innovation Driven Policy:A Quasi Natural Experiment Based on the Construction of National Innovative Provinces

关于产业结构变化对实际产出增长率的影响,以往的研究往往忽略了产业关联的作用。产业增长不仅直接影响经济增长,还可能通过影响其他产业间接作用于经济增长。实证研究表明,工业实际产值增长会促进服务业产值增长,但是会降低农业产值增长;服务业实际产值增长会抑制工业产值增长,并且会降低服务业相对价格增长率;农业实际产值增长会降低服务业相对价格增长。在考虑产业关联的情况下,对经济增长率的分解结果显示,1979—2022年中国工业产值增长拉动中国经济增长的净效应为5.72%,其中通过影响其他产业产值增长和价格结构变化的间接效应为1.2%;服务业产值增长拉动经济增长的净效应为2.49%,其中间接效应为-1.18%。进一步研究表明,工业增长净效应能够解释中国省级地区间实际产出增长率差异的78%。1979—2022年中国经济增长主要由工业增长拉动(贡献率为64.1%),这一结果要高于未考虑产业关联时的直接效应(贡献率50.68%);此外,服务业增长的间接效应对经济增长产生了较大的阻碍作用。

Innovation driven development is the key and foundation to support China’s industries to move towards the mid to high level and achieve high-quality economic development.Based on a quasi-natural experiment of national innovative province construction,this paper adopts the provincial panel data from 2001 to 2019 to examine the impact of fiscal vertical imbalance on the effectiveness of the innovation-driven policy from the perspective of both innovation quantity and innovation quality.The findings show that there are both innovation quantity effect and innovation quality effect in the construction of national innovative provinces,and that fiscal vertical imbalance will significantly inhibit the innovation quality effect,but does not affect its innovation quantity effect.From the perspective of innovation input,it is found that the construction of national innovative provinces has a positive impact on innovation human capital input and innovation fund input,but fiscal vertical imbalance inhibits the positive role of national innovative province construction,which leads to the difference in the impact of fiscal vertical imbalance on the effectiveness of innovation-driven policy between innovation quantity and innovation quality.Therefore,in order to enhance the effectiveness of innovation-driven policies,China should further improve the fiscal and taxation systems,moderately reduce fiscal vertical imbalance,optimize local fiscal expenditure structure,guarantee fiscal science and technology investments,summarize the experiences of national innovative province construction,and further promote the national innovative province construction.