我国快递市场需求影响因素识别及作用机理研究

Identification and Mechanism of Influencing Factors of Express Market Demand in China

我国快递业务量连续10年全球第一,市场规模约占全球2/3,近几年我国快递市场需求出现波动,对快递产业布局产生直接影响,急需研究影响我国快递市场需求变化的影响因素及内在作用机理。基于国民经济发展评价体系,构建了由6个一级指标和14个二级指标组成的快递市场需求影响因素指标体系;运用回归分析理论,构建了快递业务量与影响因素之间的作用机理分析模型;选择我国快递业务量排名前50的城市作为研究对象,收集各城市对应14个影响因素的数据,结果显示:第一产业对快递业务量呈现出负拉动作用,第二产业与第三产业对快递业务量呈现正拉动作用,且第二产业的影响力要大于第三产业,这一结果揭示在快递物流设施规划时,应重点围绕工业型和消费型城市布局。

China’s express delivery volume has ranked first in the world for 10 consecutive years,with the market size accounting for about 2/3 of the world.In recent years,China’s express market demand has fluctuated,which has a direct impact on the layout of the express industry.Therefore,it is urgent to study the key factors affecting the demand change in China’s express delivery market and the internal mechanism.Based on the evaluation system of national economic development,an index system of influencing factors for express market demand was established,which was composed of 6 first-level indexes and 14 second-level ones.The theory of regression analysis was applied to construct the mechanism analysis model between express delivery volume and influencing factors.Cities in China with the top 50 express delivery volume were selected as the research object and their corresponding data of 14 influencing factors were collected.The results show that:①The primary industry has a negative driving effect on the express delivery business volume.②The secondary industry and the tertiary industry have a positive driving effect on the express delivery business volume.③The influence of the secondary industry is greater than that of the tertiary industry.It reveals that the layout of express logistics facilities should focus on industrial and consumption-oriented cities.