基于LEAP模型的煤炭综合运输能耗与碳排放研究

Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions Analysis of Comprehensive Coal Transportation Based on LEAP Model

为全面掌握大型煤炭运输企业碳排放现状及发展趋势,识别高能耗排放重点环节,基于传统LEAP方法,构建了企业层面的能源需求与环境影响发展模型,以模拟不同减排方案的减排效果。模型包含运输环节、运输内部作业、能源类型、温室气体种类4层结构,以运输工作量为推动因子,同时考虑运输企业经营范围内的辅助生产排放与电力、热力隐含排放。采用情景分析法,设置了新能源交通两网融合、新能源装备、能效提升、排放控制以及负碳生态情景共5个技术政策情景,通过与基准情景对比,对比分析不同技术政策影响下煤炭铁水联运企业的能源消费与碳减排效果。研究发现,其中4个情景可以实现2030年碳达峰,而单一技术政策情景均不能如期实现碳中和,需采取综合措施。

To fully grasp the current status and development trend of carbon emissions of large coal transportation enterprises and detect the key links of energy consumption and emissions,this paper formulated an enterprise-level energy demand development model based on the long-range energy alternatives planning(LEAP)method.This model was designed to simulate the emission reduction effects of various mitigation strategies.The model encompassed a four-layer structure of transportation processes,internal operations within transportation,energy types,and greenhouse gas categories.It employed transportation workload as a driving factor,considering auxiliary production emissions within the business scope of transportation enterprises as well as implicit emissions from electricity and heat generation.With the scenario analysis method,the paper set up five technology policy scenarios:the integration of new energy networks and transportation,the new energy equipment,the energy efficiency improvement,the emission control,and the negative carbon.Comparing them with the benchmark scenario,the paper analyzed the energy consumption and carbon emission reduction trends of iron-water combined transportation enterprises under different technology policy scenarios.The results show that four scenarios among them can achieve carbon peaking by 2030.However,none of the individual technology policy scenarios can achieve carbon neutrality as scheduled,indicating the necessity for comprehensive measures to be implemented.