“双碳”约束下中国天然气消费预测研究

Research on prediction of natural gas consumption in China under dual carbon constraints

天然气被广泛认为是一种清洁能源,主要原因在于其燃烧产生的污染物较低。实现碳达峰之前,天然气将发挥重要的过渡角色。但其清洁程度并非绝对,天然气的生产、运输和存储过程也会产生一定的碳排放。通过对天然气消费量的预测,可以更好地理解并管理天然气资源的供应和需求情况。因此,文章运用LMDI因素分解法构建了天然气需求系统动力学模型,通过对未来“双碳”约束下天然气消费情况的预测,发现在基准情景和快速转型情景下,天然气消费量均呈现先增长后下降的趋势。慢速转型情景下,天然气消费量呈现增长趋势,2060年之后增长趋于平缓。

Natural gas is widely regarded as a clean energy source,mainly due to its low levels of pollutants generated during combustion.Before achieving carbon peak,natural gas will play an important transitional role.However,its cleanliness is not absolute,and the production,transportation,and storage processes of natural gas also generate certain carbon emissions.By predicting the consumption of natural gas,it is possible to better understand and manage the supply and demand of natural gas resources.Therefore,this article uses the LMDI factor decomposition method to construct a natural gas demand system dynamics model.By predicting the future natural gas consumption under dual carbon constraints,it is found that in both the baseline scenario and the rapid transformation scenario,natural gas consumption shows a trend of first increasing and then decreasing.In the slow transformation scenario,natural gas consumption shows an increasing trend,and the growth tends to be flat after 2060.