大豆收储制度市场化改革与中国大豆生产格局变迁——基于县级面板数据的分析

Marked-oriented reform of soybean purchase and storage system and its production pattern in China

基于大豆收储制度改革背景,使用2008-2021年中国大豆主产省份县级面板数据,通过标准差椭圆和参数最优地理探测器模型分析中国大豆生产格局的时空演变特征及其驱动机制。结果显示:1)中国大豆产业发展随收储制度市场化改革呈现出阶段性特征,大豆总产量历经持续下降、波动增长和稳定增长三个阶段,并且不同区域间大豆产业发展的分异程度加深。2)大豆生产格局的区域差异显著,收储制度市场化改革扭转了大豆生产分布在“东北-西南”方向上的扩散趋势,重塑了以东北优势产区为核心的分布格局。3)大豆生产格局演变的核心驱动因子包括农业资源禀赋与收储制度改革,次级驱动因子包括农村劳动力结构和人口密度,并且各驱动因子之间存在显著交互作用。4)中国大豆生产格局演变是以自然选择机制的约束作用为基础,以及市场选择机制的引导作用和制度调控机制的优化作用共同推动的结果。收储制度市场化改革通过重要直接驱动和间接作用,实现了对大豆生产格局的优化调控,对东北地区大豆产业振兴具有积极意义。

Under the background of the reform of soybean purchase and storage system,this paper uses the standard deviation ellipse method to the analyze the pattern of soybean production according to the panel data of 966 counties in China from 2008 to 2021,and then applies the optimal parameter geographic detector model to finely detect the driving mechanism behind.Our empirical research shows that:1)The development of soybean industry in China shows phased characteristics with the market-oriented reform of the purchase and storage system.The soybean production emerges obvious stage characteristics with fluctuation,having gone through three phases of continuous decline,fluctuating growth and stable growth,and the differentiation in soybean production among different regions has become obvious.2)The regional differences in soybean production pattern is significant.The marked-oriented reform of purchase and storage system has reversed the trend of pattern that the soybean production diffused in the direction of"northeast to southwest",and reshaped the pattern with the dominant producing areas in northeast China.3)The evolution of the pattern of soybean production in China is influenced by the core driving factors of agricultural resource endowment and the purchase and storage system reform,and the secondary driving factors of rural labor force structure and population density,and there are significant interactions among above factors.4)The evolution of soybean production pattern in China is based on the constraint effects of natural selection mechanism,and driven by the guiding effects of market selection mechanism and the optimization effects of institutional regulation mechanism.In addition,the marked-oriented reform of purchase and storage system has realized the optimal regulation of soybean production pattern through important direct driving and indirect effects,and has positive significance for the revitalization of the soybean industry in Northeast China.