基于APSIM模型的北方农牧交错带轮作种植模式设计——以河北省张北县为例

APSIM model-based design of crop rotation modes in agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China

多样化轮作是缓解北方农牧交错带作物种植结构单一、土壤退化、生态功能弱化等问题的重要途径,定向设计区域适宜性的轮作模式对协调农业生产和生态保护等多目标协同至关重要。文中基于河北省张北县2017-2021年的轮作制度长期定位试验数据,利用作物模型APSIM(Agricultural Production Systems Simulator)进行调参与验证,评价了该模型在该区域的适用性,并利用验证后的APSIM模型模拟了该地区4种特色作物228种轮作模式10年的生长过程,基于投入产出和碳足迹评价法定量分析不同轮作模式的产能、生态效益与经济效益。结果表明,APSIM模型对研究区燕麦(Avena sativa L.)、马铃薯(Solanum tuberosum L.)、蚕豆(Vicia faba L.)和胡麻(Sesamum indicum L.)生产模拟的精度较高,归一化均方根误差(NRMSE)为4.3%-15.4%。在228种轮作模式模拟中:从能量当量产量来看,燕麦-蚕豆轮作模式的10年总能量当量产量最高,为4.13E+05 GJ/hm^(2)。从生态效益来看,马铃薯-蚕豆轮作模式的10年总净碳排放量最低,为0.42 t·C/hm^(2)。从经济效益来看,胡麻-蚕豆轮作模式的10年总综合收益最高,为65857.09元/hm^(2)。研究结果基于作物产能-生态效益-经济效益等多目标需求,为不同主体的不同需求对应选择适宜的轮作模式提供了理论依据。

Diversified crop rotation mode is an important way to alleviate the problems of single crop planting structure,soil degradation,and weakened ecological functions in agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China,designing the crop rotation mode for regional suitability is crucial for coordinating multi-objective collaboration such as agricultural production and ecological protection.The crop model APSIM(Agricultural Production Systems Simulator)was adjusted and verified based on the data of long-term diversified crop rotation experiment in Zhangbei County,Hebei Province from 2017 to 2021,and the applicability of the model in this area was evaluated.Then,the verified APSIM model was used to simulate the growth process of four crops under 228 rotation modes for 10 years,and the input-output and carbon footprint assessment methods were used to quantitatively analyze the production capacity,ecological benefits and economic benefits of different rotation modes.The results showed that the APSIM model had high accuracy in simulating the yields of oat(Avena sativa L.),potato(Solanum tuberosum L.),faba bean(Vicia faba L.)and flax(Sesamum indicum L.)in the study area,and the normalized root mean square errors(NRMSE)ranged from 4.3%to 15.4%.The simulation of 228 rotation modes showed that:from the perspective of energy equivalent production,the 10-years total energy equivalent yield of oat-faba bean rotation mode was the highest,which was 4.13E+05 GJ/hm^(2).From the perspective of ecological benefit,the 10-years total net carbon emission of potato-faba bean rotation mode was the lowest,which was 0.42t·C/hm^(2).From the perspective of economic benefit,the 10-years total comprehensive income of flax-faba bean rotation mode was the highest,which was 65857.09￥/hm^(2).Based on the multi-objective requirements of production capacity,ecological benefits and economic benefits,the results of this research provide a theoretical basis for choosing suitable rotation modes according to the different demands of different subjects.