多种协同关系共同作用下的项目组合决策问题研究

An Expanded Model for Project Portfolio Selection with Considering of Three Synergies

在项目组合决策领域,现有文献所研究的协同关系局限于项目在同一阶段执行的情况下,通过共享资源、节约成本等方式产生的额外收益,却忽略了在不同时期执行的项目间存在的协同关系。针对此类问题,本文进一步将这种协同关系划分为多项目完结产生的协同关系与项目间成果继承产生的协同关系,并对其产生情境进行研究。在此基础上,结合学习曲线与项目贴近度对每种情境下的协同收益进行量化,构建了考虑多种协同关系的综合收益函数与项目组合决策模型。最后,通过算例实验,进一步分析考虑协同关系及相关参数变动对组合决策的影响。结果表明:考虑多种协同关系的项目组合决策模型求解结果优于传统模型;提高项目间的学习借鉴能力,并为项目组合添加更多贴近度较高的项目,是提高组合协同收益的重要途径;相较于其他两种协同关系,多项目完结时产生的协同关系及其收益对项目成本与收益的变化更为敏感。

The implementation of sub-project in project portfolio cannot be independent from other projects.Similar projects often occupy the same resources and need the same information technology.To reduce cost and improve income,project executors can make these projects share public resources and impart knowledge and experience to one another.This phenomenon is called synergy between projects.In the field of project portfolio decision problem,the existing study of synergy is limited to the benefits generated in the single period,but ignores the synergy between the projects carried out in different periods.To make this gap,the mechanism of synergy is studied and further two new types of synergy between the projects executed in multiple periods are developed.On this basis,combining with the learning curve and project closeness degree,the collaborative benefits is quantified for each synergy,and the project portfolio selection model with considering of multiple synergies is constructed.In the part of case analysis studies,a group of data is randomly generated and its rationality is analyzed.Matlab/gurobi is used to solve the problem and verify the effectiveness of the model.Then,five scenarios are compared to further analyze the influence of considering synergy on portfolio decisionmaking.The results show that:(1)the decision-making results with considering synergy can provide more benefits for enterprise and are conducive to the long-term development of the enterprise;(2)improving the learning ability between projects and adding more projects with higher approach degree to project portfolio is an effective way to improve the synergy of the portfolio;(3)the synergy of ending of multiple projects are more sensitive to the change of project cost and benefit.The model established in this paper also provides a new research idea and method for the study of synergy in project portfolio decision-making.