区域互救与外部救助耦合的突发性疫情初期应急物资协同调度研究

Research on Coordinated Dispatching of Emergency Materials in the Initial Stage of Outburst Epidemic with the Coupling of Regional Mutual Rescue and External Rescue

本文针对此次以新冠肺炎疫情为代表的突发性非常规公共卫生事件所体现出来的疫情初期应急物资极度短缺问题给疫情防控带来的巨大挑战,提出了基于疫情核心区“相濡以沫”式互救与外部救助相结合的应急物资协同调度问题。首先在分析疫情扩散规律的基础上,设计改进的SVEIR模型精细刻画疫情扩散过程;在此基础上构建了疫情动态演化、政府响应决策与物资调度耦合场景下的应急物资协同优化模型;基于问题特征设计自适应大邻域搜索算法对模型求解。基于此次新冠肺炎疫情的仿真分析表明,提出的模型能够有效地促进疫情防控,基于关键参数的敏感性分析为突发性非常规公共卫生事件防控提供了有益建议和决策支持。

Outburst and unconventional epidemic represented by COVID-19 will quickly spread to the surrounding areas after outbreaking,and these areas formed the epidemic core areas,each area has a high shortage of emergency supplies.Since it takes a relatively long time to collect,transport and distribute emergency materials from external areas to the epidemic core area,if each epidemic core area is only“responsible for its own epidemic prevention”before the arrival of external rescue materials,and the mobility of the population will have a related impact on the epidemic situation in each epidemic area,thus aggravating the spread of the epidemic situation.Compared with“responsible for its own epidemic prevention”,“mutual help”among epidemic core areas is more conducive to the prevention and control of the early stage of the epidemic.Therefore,it focuses on the problem of coordination scheduling of emergency materials based on the combination of“mutual help”among the epidemic core areas and external areas rescue in this study.An improved SVEIR model is first designed to finely describe the epidemic spread process according to the analysis of the law of epidemic's spreading.On this basis,a collaborative optimization model of emergency materials is constructed considering the coupling scenario of epidemic dynamic evolution,government response decision and material scheduling.And then,an adaptive large neighborhood search algorithm is designed to solve the model with the analysis of the characteristics of the problem.A case study of COVID-19 in 11 cities of Hubei province is finally presented to promote the model validation analysis.Stimulation result shows that the“mutual rescue”among the epidemic core areas is coupling with external areas rescue,and the proposed collaborative rescue model is helpful to significantly improve the effect of epidemic prevention and control.Meanwhile,based on the sensitivity analysis of key parameters,some research findings are obtained:(1)The effect of epidemic prevention is positively correlated with the speed of government response;(2)The effect of epidemic prevention is positively correlated with the virus transmission,the stronger of the virus transmission,the more obvious the“mutual rescue”of epidemic core areas;(3)The effect of epidemic prevention is positively correlated with the distribution efficiency of core epidemic areas,the higher the distribution efficiency,the better the epidemic prevention effect;(4)The appropriate movement of personnel is helpful to promote the overall prevention and control of the epidemic.There is a theoretical optimal patient population flow between core epidemic areas to achieve the optimal effect of epidemic prevention.The above findings provide useful suggestions and decision support for the prevention and control of public health emergencies.