基于改进FMECA的多电飞机起动/发电系统风险评估

Risk Assessment of Starter/Generator System for More Electric Aircraft Based on Improved FMECA

针对现有故障模式影响与危害度分析(Fault Modes Effects and Criticality Analysis,FMECA)主观性较强、评估结果不够准确的缺陷,提出一种改进FMECA风险评估方法。该方法采用Kendall协调系数对专家打分进行一致性分析与权重分配,利用基于马氏距离的逼近理想解排序法(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution,TOPSIS)进行故障模式风险等级排序。在详细分析多电飞机起动/发电系统故障模式及其发生概率、故障发生严酷度和可探测度的基础上,解算了专家评判数据的权重,开展了风险等级排序研究。以多电飞机起动/发电系统故障模式为研究对象,进一步采用基于加权相对贴近度的不确定性量化方法,对改进FMECA方法与现有FMECA、模糊FMECA方法进行了比较研究,结果表明改进FMECA方法的不确定性量化指标降低幅度较大,可以获得较好的风险评估结果。

In view of the existing fault modes effects and criticality analysis(FMECA) defects with strong subjectivity and inaccurate assessment results,an improved FMECA risk assessment method is proposed.This method utilizes Kendall coordination coefficient for consistency analysis and weight allocation of expert scoring,and employs the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS) based on Mahalanobis distance for fault mode risk level ranking.Based on the detail analysis of the fault modes in the starter/generator system of more electric aircraft,including their occurrence probability,severity of occurrence,and detectability,the weights of expert judgement data is calculated and the risk level ranking is studied.Focusing on the fault modes of the starter/generator system of more electric aircraft,a weighted relative closeness-based uncertainty quantification method is adopted to compare the improved FMECA method with existing FMECA and fuzzy FMECA methods.The results demonstrate a significant reduction in the uncertainty quantification index of the improved method,leading to more reliable risk assessment outcomes.