绿色结构性货币政策、政策预期与经济绿色转型

Green Structural Monetary Policy,Policy Expectations and Economic Green Transition

如何通过绿色结构性货币政策促进我国经济绿色转型,是一个尚待深入研究的重要问题。本文首先构建嵌入气候环境模块和绿色结构性货币政策的理论模型,从绿色投资和碳排放两个维度,分析绿色结构性货币政策促进经济绿色转型的理论机制;然后,进一步考察银行绿色政策预期的影响机理;最后,采用微观面板数据模型和基于混频数据的局部投影法进行实证检验。研究发现:第一,绿色结构性货币政策能够通过绿色信贷渠道显著提高绿色投资,并通过绿色投资的作用机制降低碳排放。第二,银行绿色政策预期增强会提高绿色信贷渠道的传导效率,进而强化绿色结构性货币政策提高绿色投资的效果,最终带动更多碳减排。第三,绿色金融改革创新试验区政策与绿色结构性货币政策具有协同效应,提高企业环境信息透明度可以强化绿色结构性货币政策的经济绿色转型成效。

Summary:Economic green transition is a profound revolution that determines economic high-quality development,in which monetary policy plays an important role of guiding financial allocations.Green structural monetary policy with its precise and direct speciality,supports key areas for carbon reduction,and has become one of the most important macroeconomic regulation tools for the People's Bank of China to help achieve the dual carbon goals.However,China's green structural monetary policy is still in the stage that needs improvement,and divergent expectations about the policy may affect its real effectiveness.What are the real effects of green structural monetary policy on advancing economic green transition in China?What are the specific mechanisms of the influence?How do green policy expectations affect the effectiveness of green structural monetary policy?The in-depth study on the above questions has important practical significance for monetary policy to better promote economic green transition.Combining theoretical modeling and empirical testing methods,this paper systematically studies how the green structural monetary policy influences micro enterprises'green investment and macroeconomic carbon emissions.For theoretical analysis,we construct a model embedded in the climate module and green structural monetary policy,analyze the mechanisms of green structural monetary policy promoting economic green transition,and extend the model by taking into account the random distribution of policy expectations,to further investigate its effects on the transmission efficiency of green structural monetary policy.For empirical study,we use micro panel data model,local projection method based on mixed frequency data,and nonlinear local projection method to examine how the green structural monetary policy influences green investment and carbon reduction,and identify the specific transmission path.Then,we explore how the policy expectations change the effectiveness of green structural monetary policy.Finally,we conduct heterogeneous analysis of policy effects from two aspects:the green finance reform and innovation pilot zone and environmental information transparency.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)Green structural monetary policy can significantly increase green investment through green credit channels and reduce carbon emissions through the path of green investment.(2)More positive green policy expectations can improve the transmission efficiency of green credit channels,thereby strengthening the effectiveness of green structural monetary policy in increasing green investment,and ultimately driving greater carbon reduction efforts.(3)Green finance policy and green structural monetary policy have positive synergy,and improving the environmental information transparency can strengthen the effectiveness of green structural monetary policy in promoting economic green transition.We propose three policy recommendations for monetary policy to support the realization of the dual carbon goal:(1)Central bank can strengthen the targeted supports of green structural monetary policy by unblocking the green credit channels,and should enhance the precise and direct transmissions of green structural monetary policy from the green investment to carbon reduction.(2)Central bank should adjust green structural monetary policy continuously and gradually,and improve policy transparency to form positive and stable green policy expectations.(3)Further stimulate the policy synergy between green structural monetary policy and other green financial policies,and increase environmental information transparency to reduce potential risks of green washing.This paper may have following academic contributions:(1)We provide a basic analytical framework for studying the economic green transition effects of green structural monetary policy.We construct a theoretical model embedded in climate module and green structural monetary policy,reveal the mechanism through which green structural monetary policy increases green investment and decreases carbon emissions.(2)From the dual dimensions of green investment and carbon emissions,we evaluate the real effects of green structural monetary policy on promoting economic green transition,and identify the specific path of green structural monetary policy→green credit→green investment→carbon emissions.(3)We reveal the influence of green policy expectations on the effectiveness of green structural monetary policy,and verify the synergy between green financial policies and the heterogeneous influence of environmental information transparency on policy effectiveness.Our study provides useful references for the central bank to further optimize the regulation of green structural monetary policy.