外出打工率对农户教育支出的影响--基于人力资本投资激励效应

The Impact of Migration Rate on Education Expenditure of Farm Household--Based on the Incentive Effect of Human Capital Investment

人力资本成为中国农村实现新质生产力发展的关键因素,然而人口流失又是短期内不会改变的趋势,因此我们需要思考的是农村如何在人口规模减少的背景下实现人力资本积累。文章从微观农户的视角分析当村庄外出打工率增加时,农户是否会由于未来迁出就业的高回报而加大对子女的教育支出,这既是对人力资本投资激励效应的理论完善,也为农村实现人力资本积累提供了路径思考。本文基于2010年和2014年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据库的两期追踪儿童数据构建带有调节变量的中介效应模型,验证人力资本投资激励效应在中国农村的存在性、发生条件与影响机制。实证分析发现:只有在村庄外出打工率超过43.54%、家庭收入超过3.994万元之后,人力资本投资激励效应才会显著,即村庄外出打工率促进农户教育支出。该结论在考虑样本选择的干扰、迁移原因的干扰以及抽样数据可靠性的干扰后依然稳健。当纳入父母教育期望这一影响机制时,人力资本投资激励效应的条件被拓宽,村庄外出打工率的拐点从43.54%下降到37.65%。再加入调节变量之后机制更加清晰,母亲的人缘关系指代的家庭信息接收能力作为调节变量,发挥了直接调节作用和对中介效应第一阶段的间接调节作用。人均村务布告栏数量指代的村庄信息传输通畅程度作为另一调节变量,也同样发挥了直接调节作用。进一步的异质性分析发现迁出率急剧增长的村庄中的人力资本投资激励效应最明显,反映出外部环境的动态变化对人们心理影响更大。在地区分布上,只有中部地区的农村存在显著的人力资本投资激励效应,而东部地区和西部地区的这一作用并不显著。因此,对于人口流失的中国农村而言,要实现人力资本积累,应当在发展非农产业提升农民收入的同时注重完善村庄信息传输渠道、鼓励城乡交流、提升农民教育期望。

Human capital has become a crucial factor for the development of new quality productive forces in rural China.However,population loss is a trend that will not change in the short term.Therefore,we need to consider how rural areas can accumulate human capital in a decreasing population.From the perspective of households,the article analyzes whether households will increase their education expenditure on children due to the expectation of higher returns from future migration as the rate of working outside increases.This not only theoretically refines the incentive effect of human capital investment but also provides pathways for achieving human capital accumulation in rural areas.Using data from the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)database for the years 2010 and 2014,a mediation model with moderating variables was con⁃structed to verify the existence,conditions,and influencing mechanisms of the incentive effect of human capital investment in rural China.Empirical analysis reveals that the incentive effect of human capital investment is significant only when the migration rate exceeds 43.54%and household income surpasses 39,940 RMB.In other words,working outside increases household education expenditure.This conclusion remains robust even after considering sample selection bias,migration reasons,and data reliability concerns.When considering parental education expectations as an influencing mechanism,the conditions for the incentive effect of human capital investment are broadened,and the threshold for migration rate decreases from 43.54%to 37.65%.Furthermore,when moderating variables are added,the mechanism becomes clearer.The family′s information reception ability,represented by the mother′s social connections,acts as a direct moderator and also indirectly moderates the first stage of the mediation effect.The number of village bulletin boards per capita,representing the efficiency of village information transmission,also plays a direct moderating role.Further heterogeneity analysis reveals that the incentive effect of human capital investment is most evident in villages with rapidly increasing migration rates,reflecting the greater psychological impact of dynamic changes in the external environment on individuals.Regionally,the signifi⁃cant incentive effect of human capital investment is only observed in the central region′s rural areas,whereas this effect is not significant in the eastern and western regions.Therefore,for rural China facing population loss,achieving human capital accumulation requires not only the development of non agricultural industries to increase incomes but also the improvement of information transmission channels,encouragement of urban-rural exchanges,and enhancement of educational expectations.