最低工资标准提升对女性育儿时间的影响研究

The Effects of China's Minimum Wage Hikes on Women's Childcare Time

当前我国经济面临着较为复杂的外部发展环境和内部多重挑战,这使我国低收入家庭尤其女性家庭成员存在较大的收入不确定性,这些变化将会对女性的工作(有酬劳动)和育儿(照料子女)的选择产生深刻影响。尽管已有研究广泛探讨了女性所面临的工作-育儿冲突问题,但现实生活中我国女性在二者之间究竟会作何选择并可能引致何种后果则少有文献涉及。文章借助最低工资政策的实施,构建理论模型刻画女性在面临增收机会情境下育儿时间的选择机制,以期加深理解低收入女性在工作和育儿之间的权衡难题。文章还利用子女的未来健康状况变化进一步考察女性育儿时间决策的后果,为上述问题的分析提供补充证据。在此基础上,采用2004—2015年中国健康与营养调查数据和同期各区县的最低工资标准进行系统的实证检验。结果显示最低工资标准提升对低收入女性育儿时间具有显著负向影响,该结论在经过一系列内生性分析和稳健性检验后依然成立。机制分析表明最低工资标准提升主要通过提高女性参与劳动的概率和工作时间产生作用,这一结论为低收入女性用工作替代育儿的事实提供了直接证据。异质性分析表明:处于生育平稳期、子女年龄为4~6岁或父辈健康状况较好的女性因具有更高的育儿弹性,育儿时间受到的负向影响更强,同时技能水平更低或工作搜寻难度更小的女性育儿时间同样也更容易受到最低工资政策的不利影响。进一步研究发现最低工资标准提升对短期内子女的身心健康具有显著负向影响,且均可归因于女性育儿时间的减少,这也为文章中的核心结论提供了补充性证据。据此建议政府部门推动建立父亲育儿假制度,加强对托儿机构的普遍监管和支持,鼓励企业为女性群体提供灵活的工作时间和工作模式,聚焦低技能、低学历女性群体的职业技能培训和教育提升,增强其就业竞争力,同时加强最低工资政策的执行力度,确保小时工资标准得到遵守,防止企业延长工作时间。这些措施有助于弥补女性育儿时间减少导致的不利后果,构建合理的生育支持政策体系。

The current economic conditions in China are characterized by a complex external development environment and internal challenges.These factors contribute to significant income uncertainty among low-income households,particularly those with female members.These changes will profoundly impact women′s choices regarding paid labor and childcare needs. Although existing research extensively explores the work-childcare conflict experienced by women,there is a notable lack of literature addressing the specific choices Chinese women make between these responsibilities and the potential outcomes in real-life scenarios. With the implementation of the minimum wage policy,this paper constructs theoretical model to characterize the mechanism of low-income women′s choice of childcare time in the face of increased income opportunities,aiming to deepen understanding of the balancing dilemma faced by women between work and childcare. Furthermore,this paper also examines the consequences of women′s childcare time decisions by considering changes in their children′s future health conditions,thus providing supplementary evidence for the analysis of the above issues. On this basis,this paper uses China Health and Nutrition Survey data conducted in 2004-2015 and minimum wage data at the county level to empirically examine the effect of minimum wage policy on women′s childcare time. The results show that:(1)Increasing the minimum wage has significantly reduced low-income women′s childcare time,and the conclusion remains valid after considering endogenous analysis and conducting a series of robustness tests.(2)The mechanism analysis shows that the increment of the minimum wage standard would increase women′s employment rate and working hours,providing direct evidence that low-income women replace work with childcare. (3)Heterogeneity analyses show that women in a stable fertility phase,with children aged 4 to 6,or with parents in good health,are more adversely affected in their childcare time due to their higher elasticity of childcare. Concurrently,women with lower skill levels or facing less difficulty in job searches also find their childcare time more susceptible to the negative impacts of the minimum wage policy.(4)Further research finds that an increase in the minimum wage has a significant negative impact on children′s physical and mental health in the short run,all of which can be attributed to the reduction in women′s childcare time, providing supplementary evidence to the core conclusion of this paper. Therefore,government departments should promote the establishment of a parental leave system encompassing fathers,strengthen universal supervision and support for childcare facilities,encourage businesses to offer flexible working hours and arrangements for women,and focus on vocational skills training and educational advancement for women with low skills and educational backgrounds to enhance their employability. Simultaneously,efforts should be intensified to enforce minimum wage policies rigorously,ensuring compliance with hourly wage stan⁃ dards and preventing companies from extending working hours. These measures hold significant policy implications for mitigating the adverse consequences resulting from reduced childcare time among women and for constructing a rational system of fertility support policies accordingly.