组合赋权-云模型的变电站检修风险评价

Risk assessment of substation maintenance based on combined weighting-cloud model

为解决变电站检修风险评价指标的不确定性和风险等级难以确定的困难,首先,运用工作分解结构-风险分解结构(Work Breakdown Structure-Risk Breakdown Structure,WBS-RBS)法识别出影响变电站检修的主要风险因素,并通过灰色关联度分析优化评价指标,构建了包括5个一级指标、20个二级指标的变电站检修风险评价指标体系;其次,采用博弈论对网络层次分析法(Analytic Network Process,ANP)和改进CRITIC(Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation)法分别确定的主、客观指标权重进行组合赋权计算,并结合云模型以内蒙古某变电站为例进行风险等级评价,得到该变电站检修风险综合云特征值为(0.4805,0.0337,0.0055),根据MATLAB绘图及风险等级划分可知,该变电站检修处于中等风险等级;最后,将案例中云模型与模糊综合评价法的计算结果进行对比。结果表明,二者的评价结果相近,但组合赋权-云模型方法能够克服模糊综合评价法随机性和模糊性的缺陷,较全面客观地反映变电站检修风险的实际情况。

To address the uncertainty surrounding risk evaluation indices and the challenge of determining the risk level of substation maintenance,this thesis initially adopts the Work Breakdown Structure-Risk Breakdown Structure(WBS-RBS).This method is used to identify the primary risk factors affecting substation maintenance,which are then optimized through grey relational analysis.Subsequently,a substation maintenance risk evaluation index system is developed,consisting of 5 first-level indexes and 20 second-level indexes.Additionally,the Analytic Network Process(ANP)is utilized to determine the subjective weight of each risk evaluation index,while the enhanced Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation(CRITIC)method is employed to establish the objective weight of each risk evaluation index.Subsequently,the combined weight of the subjective and objective risk evaluation indexes is comprehensively calculated using game theory.This approach allows for the comprehensive and systematic consideration of inherent information among risk assessment indexes,ultimately reducing subjective arbitrariness,enhancing the objectivity of the weight of risk assessment indexes,and producing more realistic evaluation results.We have developed a substation maintenance risk evaluation model using the cloud model theory.This involves obtaining a standard cloud by dividing risk levels,then combining the combined weight with the evaluation cloud obtained from the evaluation data to obtain an integrated cloud.The substation maintenance risk evaluation results are then calculated using the cloud image method and the similarity method,as well as comparing the integrated cloud with the standard cloud.The substation maintenance risk evaluation model,which combines weighting and a cloud model,was used to assess the maintenance risk of a substation in Inner Mongolia.The results indicate that the integrated cloud characteristic value for the substation maintenance risk is(0.4805,0.0337,0.0055).Based on the drawing and risk classification in MATLAB software,it is evident that the substation maintenance is categorized as medium risk.This indicates that the risk is approaching the upper limit of what is acceptable,and therefore,it is imperative to enhance monitoring and implement preventive measures;ultimately,the cloud models and results of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method are compared,revealing similar evaluation outcomes.However,the integrated weighting-cloud model is able to address the shortcomings of randomness and fuzziness inherent in the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.Through the“cloud drop”diagram,it can more accurately depict the actual situation of substation maintenance risk,offering more scientifically sound and reasonable evaluation results.This serves as a valuable reference for substation maintenance risk assessment.