RCEP下运输服务贸易壁垒降低的区域经济效应分析

Analysis of regional economic effects of reducing trade barriers in transportation services under RCEP Agreement

作为关键的生产性服务业,运输服务贸易壁垒的降低为RCEP区域合作与发展带来了新机遇。通过使用GTAP模型模拟运输服务贸易壁垒降低所产生的区域经济效应后发现:行业整体层面,运输服务贸易壁垒降低有利于促进区域经济发展、社会福利提升以及成员间贸易合作;细分行业层面,壁垒降低有助于提高各国对域内其他成员所提供的运输服务需求,扩大生产附加值,且中日为主要的贸易逆差国,其他成员主要表现为贸易顺差。进一步分析发现:中国运输服务业竞争力相对较弱,且表现出短期以逆差为主,长期有顺差趋势的特征;印度若加入RCEP不仅有利于增进区域经济效应,也会改善其自身经济状态,虽然在一定程度上会分流中国与其他RCEP成员之间的合作,但中印之间的贸易合作规模会明显扩大。据此提出政策启示,旨为提升我国运输服务业国际竞争力提供借鉴。

As transportation services being a key productive service industry,the reduction of trade barriers in transportation services has brought new opportunities for RCEP regional cooperation and development.After simulating the regional economic effects of reducing trade barriers in transportation services using GTAP model,the following results are found:At the industry level,reducing trade barriers in transportation services is beneficial for promoting regional economic development,improving social welfare,and promoting trade cooperation among members;at the sub-industry level,reducing barriers helps to increase the demand for transportation services provided by other members within the region,expand production-added value,and China and Japan are the main trade deficit countries,with other members mainly exhibiting trade surpluses.Further analysis reveals that the competitiveness of China's transportation service industry is relatively weaker,and it exhibits a short-term trend of deficit,with a long-term trend of surplus.If India joins RCEP,it will not only enhance regional economic effects,but also improve its own economic status.Although it will to some extent divert cooperation between China and the other RCEP members,the scale of trade cooperation between China and India will significantly expand.Policy implications are thus dawn,aiming to provide reference for enhancing the international competitiveness of China′s transportation service industry.