东北三省交通行业碳排放脱钩状态及驱动因素分析

Decoupling status and driving factors of carbon emissions for the transportation industry in three northeastern provinces of China

在“双碳”目标引领下,推动东北三省交通行业碳排放与经济发展的脱钩,有助于促进东北三省高质量发展、实现可持续振兴。文中以2000—2021年东北三省交通行业碳排放为研究对象,探究其脱钩状态及脱钩稳定性,并进一步运用LMDI法分析影响脱钩的驱动因素。结果表明,东北三省交通行业碳排放脱钩状态变化复杂,稳定性较差,新冠疫情前存在向强脱钩过渡的趋势;各驱动因素对脱钩的影响效果存在波动,经济发展、交通强度阻碍了脱钩,能源强度有效地推动了脱钩,能源结构、产业结构对脱钩的驱动或抑制效果在各年存在差异,人口规模对脱钩的影响最小。东北三省交通行业碳排放脱钩潜力较大,未来仍要进一步推动低碳交通体系的建设。

In the context of the“dual-carbon”target,the decoupling of carbon emissions from economic development in the transportation industry in three northeastern provinces of China will help promote high-quality development and sustainable revitalization of the region.The article takes carbon emissions from the transportation industry in three northeastern provinces of China from 2000 to 2021 as the object of study to explore the decoupling status and decoupling stability,and further analyses the driving factors affecting decoupling by applying the LMDI method.The results show that the decoupling status of carbon emissions from the transport sector in three northeastern provinces of China is complex in terms of change,with poor decoupling stability and a tendency to transition to strong decoupling prior to the New Crown Epidemic;The effect of each driving factor fluctuated during the study period.Overall,economic development and traffic intensity hinder decoupling,while energy intensity effectively promoted decoupling.The driving effects of energy structure and industrial structure factors on decoupling status fluctuated in different years,and the impact of population size on decoupling was minimal.The transportation industry in three northeastern provinces of China has great potential for carbon emission decoupling,and further promotion of a low-carbon transport system is still needed in the future.