基于贝叶斯方法的施工企业现场履约能力动态评价方法研究

Research on Dynamic Evaluation Method of Construction Enterprises' on-site Contract Performance Capabilities Based on Bayesian Method

本文提出采用贝叶斯概率模型动态评价施工企业现场履约能力,根据施工企业阶段性的履约行为更新履约评价,为建设单位动态管理提供依据。模型选用合同执行、工期、质量、安全、劳动者权益指标评价施工企业的履约行为。通过专家打分法确定工期、质量、安全的权重均为0.25,劳动者权益权重为0.1。采用正态分布函数度量企业各指标的履约条件概率。企业的履约能力的初始概率依据投标时的能力确定,根据贝叶斯后验概率对先验概率进行更新的思路,依据企业周期内的履约扣分更新履约评价概率。项目实施案例表明,初始履约概率0.8的企业,初期实现扣分为5/100的履约良好后,履约概率评分更新提升为0.89,低于一次性的直接评分履约概率0.95,企业需要重复3个周期的良好履约记录才能够将不良记录的影响消除。模型评价系统具有累计考察的效应,避免了因某次非致命事件导致评价陡降,鼓励企业长期维持良好的履约行为。

The construction enterprise is the final entity responsible for and implementing the construction project,and its on-site performance behavior is directly related to the achievement of the goals of the construction project.This article proposes to use the Bayesian probability model to dynamically evaluate the on-site contract performance capabilities of construction companies,update the performance evaluation based on the construction company's periodic performance behavior,and provide a basis for the dynamic management of construction units.The model selects contract execution,construction period,quality,safety,and labor rights indicators to evaluate the contract performance behavior of construction companies.The normal distribution function is used to measure the probability of performance conditions,the probability distribution of the company's performance status is determined through project scoring statistics,and the performance evaluation probability is updated based on the performance deduction points within the company's cycle.Project implementation cases show that the model evaluation system has the effect of cumulative inspections.Good performance behaviors require continuous accumulation to significantly improve the evaluation results;an occasional low-scoring behavior will not significantly reduce the evaluation results,but it will decrease after multiple accumulations.The evaluation results require more good performance behaviors to make up for it.