黄河流域产水量时空变化及归因分析

Spatial and Temporal Variability of Water Yield in Yellow River Valley and Attribution Analysis

产水量模拟是划分水源涵养等级的基础,对于区域内生态系统质量评价具有重要作用。为探究黄河流域产水量时空格局与人类活动对其的影响,该研究基于InVEST模型,采用改进后产水模块的检验方法,模拟了2000年、2005年、2010年、2015年、2020年黄河流域实际产水量,并结合空间自相关模型、时空地理加权回归模型对产水量展开时空分异特征与人类活动影响分析。结果显示:20年间,黄河流域最大区域年均产水量可达881 mm且呈现“N”型变化趋势;产水量表现为空间正相关,主要时空格局为东南部高值聚集、西北部低值聚集;各人类活动指标均双向驱动产水量,人类活动逐渐向环境友好型过渡。该研究结果明确了黄河流域产水量时空分异特征及人类活动对其驱动机制,可为黄河流域生态保护与高质量发展提供一定评价依据。

Water yield simulation is the foundation of the classification of water conservation class,playing a crucial role in assessing regional ecosystem quality.In order to investigate the spatio-temporal pattern of water yield in the Yellow River valley and the driving force of human activities,this study simulated the actual water production in the Yellow River valley in 2000,2005,2010,2015 and 2020 respectively based on the InVEST model and the verification method of the improved water yield module.The spatial and temporal auto-correlation model and geographically time-weighted regression(GTWR)model were used to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of water yield and the impacts of human activities.The results show that during the 20-year period,the maximum regional water yield in the Yellow River valley could reach an annual aver⁃age of 881 mm and exhibited an“N”trend of change;the water yield spatial showed positive correlation,with the main spatial and temporal patterns being high-value aggregation in the southeast and low-value aggregation in the northwest;and all the human activities indicators boosted water yield in both directions,and the human activities were gradually transitioning to environmentally friendly practices.In summary,the study has resulted in the clarification of the spatial and temporal character⁃istics of water yield and the driving mechanism of human activities,which would serve as a basis for evaluating the ecological protection and promoting the high-quality development of the Yellow River valley.