毕节烟区烟农经营能力对烤烟种植意愿的影响研究

Influence of Tobacco Farmers' Management Ability on Planting Intention of Flue-cured Tobacco in Bijie Tobacco Region

明确烟农经营能力对其烤烟种植意愿的影响,是应对烟农流失和队伍老龄化问题的重要途经。基于渐进适应理论模型,本文首先利用成本收益分析框架提炼影响烟农种烟决策的经营能力,然后使用贵州毕节市766户烟农数据,通过广义有序logit模型检验烟农能力对种烟意愿的影响。结果表明,烟农的种烟决策受土地流转能力、灾害防范能力、用工能力和质量把控能力影响;家庭农场主对土地流转能力的诉求比种烟大户更高;灾害防范能力不足时,传统散户倾向于减少规模,而种烟大户更倾向于保持或扩大规模;用工能力和质量把控能力弱的烟农,保持或扩大规模的决心更弱;高文化程度和村干部任职经历能提升烟农扩大规模的信心,而年龄更小与外出务工经历对烟农扩大规模的意愿具有抑制效应。基于上述结论,本文从健全土地流转和灾害防范体系,全面提高烟农用工能力和质量把控能力,依据烟农信息实行精准服务三个方面提出政策启示,为“稳烟农、稳烟区”相关政策制定提供参考。

Identifying the influence of tobacco farmers' management on their willingness to grow flue-cured tobacco,is an important approach to address the issues of tobacco farmer attrition and aging.Based on a model of gradual adjustment,firstly the cost-benefit framework was employed to identify the relevant capabilities that influence tobacco farmers' decisions on tobacco growing.Secondly,by using a generalized ordered logit model,the survey data from 766 tobacco farmers in Bijie,Guizhou Province,were used to examine the influence of tobacco farmers' abilities on their willingness to grow tobacco.Tobacco farmers' planting decision is influenced by their land transfer ability,disaster prevention ability,employment ability and quality control ability.Family farmers have higher demands for land circulation ability than the large tobacco growers.When disaster prevention ability is insufficient,the traditional retail investor tend to reduce their growing scale,while the large tobacco growers tend to maintain or expand the scale.Tobacco growers with weak abilities of employment and quality control are even less determined to maintain or expand the scale.High education level and village cadre experience can enhance the confidence of tobacco growers to expand their scale,while younger age and migration experience have a restraining effect on tobacco farmers' willingness to expand scale.Based on the above results,in order to make policies for stabilizing tobacco farmers and tobacco fields,this paper puts forward suggestions from the following three aspects:improving land circulation and disaster prevention systems;comprehensively improving the employment and quality control abilities of tobacco farmers;and implementing precise services based on the profiles of tobacco farmers.