不确定条件下考虑碳交易与绿色证书交易的区域发电结构优化研究

区域发电结构的优化对实现“双碳”目标具有重要意义。该文探讨同时考虑碳限额交易机制与可再生能源配额制下的区域发电结构优化问题,以中国广东省长期的发电规划为例进行研究。考虑能源政策和相关经济参数等多种不确定因素对规划模型的影响,将区间规划和模糊规划结合到优化模型中去,构建不确定因素下考虑碳交易和绿色证书交易的区域发电结构优化模型。结果表明,不确定优化模型应用到区域电力生产的长期规划中,产生有效的规划结果,可为区域电力绿色低碳转型提供有效的参考意见。

The optimization of regional power generation structure is of great significance in achieving the"Double Carbon"goals.This paper discusses the optimization of regional power generation structure under both carbon cap-and-trade mechanism and Renewable Portfolio Standard,taking the long-term power generation planning of Guangdong Province,China as an example.First,a multi-objective power generation structure optimization model with minimum cost,minimum carbon emissions and maximum social welfare is constructed;then,the optimal power generation structure and carbon emission path under different scenarios are solved;finally,a comprehensive evaluation system for power green transformation is constructed,used to evaluate the green transformation effect of power.The results show that the proportion of renewable energy power generation in Guangdong Province will increase under the benchmark scenario,strict policy and loose policy scenarios,and the carbon emission intensity will decrease.The green transformation effect under the strict policy scenario is the best.