基于随机抽样方法对江苏某丹顶鹤保护区互花米草扩张的严重性研究

江苏省某丹顶鹤保护区互花米草大量繁殖,对保护区内的其他草本植物构成严重威胁。保护区内的碱蓬是丹顶鹤过冬的食物来源之一,但是碱蓬在互花米草扩张的背景下,生存空间也在持续缩小。为研究互花米草侵占碱蓬生存空间的严重程度,该文通过蒙特卡洛随机抽样方法,以1997—2021年的互花米草扩张的数据为基础,预测2021年之后的11年间每一年碱蓬生长的面积。研究结果表明,如果不对互花米草的扩张进行干预,在2029年碱蓬的生存空间就被完全蚕食。综合遥感解译与预测模型,作者提出一个科学治护互花米草的建议。

Spartina alterniflora Loisel.reproduces in large numbers in a red-crowned crane reserve in Jiangsu Province,posing a serious threat to other herbs in the reserve.Suaeda salsa in the reserve is one of the food sources for red-crowned cranes during the winter,but its living space continues to shrink amid the expansion of Spartina alterniflora Loisel..In order to study the severity of Spartina alterniflora Loisel.'s occupation of the living space of Suaeda salsa,this paper used the Monte Carlo random extraction method to predict the growth area of Suaeda salsa in each 11 years after 2021 based on the expansion data of Spartina alterniflora Loisel.from 1997 to 2021.The research results show that if the expansion of Spartina alterniflora Loisel.is not intervened,the living space of Suaeda salsa will be completely eroded in 2029.By integrating remote sensing interpretation and prediction models,a suggestion is put forward that advocates scientific management and conservation of Spartina alterniflora Loisel..