长江中下游崩岸险情智能感知预警与防治关键技术研究构想及成果展望

Research Concept and Prospects of Key Technologies for Intelligent Perception,Early Warning,and Prevention of Bank Collapse Risks in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

崩岸是长江中下游河道自然演变的常见形式,严重威胁防洪安全、航道畅通及沿江经济基础设施正常运行甚至是人民生命财产安全。三峡工程等水利水电工程建成运行引起长江中下游水沙情势显著改变,近年来,中下游河道持续冲刷、局部河势调整、崩岸频发,造成多方面不利影响。尽管以往已开展了相关研究并进行了治理,但由于影响因素众多,崩岸机理复杂,隐蔽性、突发性和随机性强,预警及治理难度依然很大。本文以“崩岸机理揭示—大范围筛查—介入式监测—多尺度预警—系统化防治”为总体思路开展研究,围绕流-固耦合作用下的崩岸机理与险情智能筛查、河道岸坡土体全要素实时感知及崩岸模拟预警技术、耦合河势控制措施的崩岸系统防治技术等关键科学技术问题,重点研究持续冲刷下河势变化与崩岸动态响应关系,研发多源信息融合的崩岸险情智能筛查技术、河道岸坡全要素一体化智能感知技术、多尺度河道崩岸预测与预警技术,以及耦合河势控制措施的崩岸系统防治技术,旨在揭示持续冲刷条件下长江中下游崩岸发生的驱动因素及内在机理,研发崩岸险情智能感知预警及防治关键技术,实现崩岸险情智能筛查、多要素监测、动态预警与系统防治。研究有望显著提高长江中下游河道崩岸发生的预见性和治理技术水平,促进崩岸从灾后抢护向灾前预防转变,为河道系统治理和水安全保障能力提升提供科技支撑。

Significance Bank collapse is a major phenomenon in the natural evolution of alluvial river channels,prevalent in nearly all river and coastal areas worldwide.It represents a critical issue in river geomorphology evolution and its impacts.The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River are particularly susceptible to bank collapse.This phenomenon substantially threatens flood control,navigational channels,economic infrastructure,and human safety along rivers.The construction and operation of hydraulic projects,such as the Three Gorges Reservoir,have significantly altered the water and sediment dynamics in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.These changes have led to continuous channel erosion,localized river channel adjustments,and frequent bank collapses in recent years.Over the past two decades,more than 1000 incidents of bank collapse have been recorded,cumulatively spanning 760 km,causing various adverse impacts.Despite extensive research and remediation efforts,the complexity of influencing factors,intricate mechanisms,and the unpredictable nature of bank collapse continue to present significant early warning and prevention challenges.Therefore,conducting in-depth research on bank collapse mechanisms,monitoring,early warning technology,and governance systems in these regions has become necessary and urgent.Progress This study adopts a comprehensive approach encapsulated in the theme“Mechanism Revelation—Extensive Screening—Intervention Monitoring—Multi-scale Early Warning—Systematic Prevention and Control”to address critical scientific and technical challenges.It focuses on understanding bank collapse mechanisms under flow-solid coupling,developing intelligent hazard screening,real-time sensing of riverbank soil,bank collapse simulation,early warning technologies,and developing systematic prevention and control technologies integrating river channel control measures.The research employs data analysis,numerical simulation,and flume experiments to elucidate the relationship between river channel changes and bank collapse dynamics under continuous erosion conditions.It utilizes remote sensing,data fusion,and machine learning methods for intelligent hazard screening based on multi-source information fusion from“air,space,and ground”.In addition,the study integrates stereoscopic monitoring,data analysis,and technical integration methods to develop a comprehensive intelligent monitoring network and equipment for riverbank slopes.It develops a multi-scale universal model and a dynamic early warning technology system using coupled simulation,statistical analysis,and machine learning in prediction and early warning.The research proposes and demonstrates bank collapse prevention and control technologies coupled with river channel control measures,reflecting innovations primarily in the dynamic response relationship between river channel changes and bank collapse under discontinuous bank protection conditions;the implementation of innovative screening technologies;the integration of multi-source heterogeneous information from“air,space,and ground”for intelligent hazard screening;advancements in monitoring technologies,including the development of real-time sensing equipment;and innovations in simulation and early warning technologies,establishing a universal multi-scale dynamic early warning platform.Conclusions and Prospects This study aims to uncover the driving factors and intrinsic mechanisms of bank collapse in the Yangtze River's middle and lower reaches under continuous erosion conditions.It seeks to develop key technologies for intelligent hazard perception,early warning,and preventing and controlling bank collapses.These efforts aim to achieve intelligent screening,multi-factor monitoring,dynamic early warning,and systematic prevention and control of bank collapse hazards.The research outcomes will guide the planning,design,and implementation of river channel management in these regions of the Yangtze River and facilitate the construction and application of a dynamic early warning platform for bank collapses in critical areas along the river.This will provide robust scientific support for decision-making by basin authorities,significantly enhance the predictability and management of bank collapse risks in the middle and lower Yangtze River,promote overall improvement in bank collapse hazard prevention and control,and advance flood control and disaster reduction technologies.The study will facilitate a shift from post-disaster rescue to pre-disaster prevention,providing technological support for river system management and water security enhancement.This approach is expected to yield significant economic,social,and ecological benefits,offering extensive application value and broad promotion prospects.