大型危岩体崩塌灾害早期监测预警技术研究综述

Review on the Monitoring and Early Warning Technology of Large-scale Unstable Rock Collapse

作为中国常见的一种地质灾害,大型危岩崩塌成因复杂、分布范围广、隐蔽性和突发性强、危害性大,其早期预警一直难以实现。通过总结岩体崩塌灾害失稳机理与预警模型可知,开展岩桥结构面损伤识别及静力学-动力学-环境量参量(SDEI)的综合性监测技术研究是实现大型危岩体崩塌灾害早期监测预警的关键所在,而基于分离破坏前兆识别的早期预警机制研究是提高崩塌灾害预警时效性的有效手段之一。随着微机电系统与云边融合技术的发展,在未来有望形成一套稳定性动态评价、失稳工况预测与失稳时间预测模型实时联动的多元预警新范式。与此同时,还需通过不断丰富大型危岩崩塌等脆性破坏灾害预警技术体系,实现危岩体预警等级、稳定性状态、失稳工况、失稳时间的实时分析,进而有效解决大型危岩体崩塌灾害科学精准防控与智慧化应急决策的双重难题。最后,针对目前崩塌灾害早期监测预警研究中存在的技术瓶颈问题,提出具体的发展策略与应对措施,以期为中国地质灾害高风险区更好地应对大型危岩体崩塌灾害提供一些参考。

Large-scale rock collapse is a prevalent geological hazard in China,characterized by complex causes,wide distribution,strong concealment,sudden onset,and significant destructiveness,making early warning challenging to achieve.The instability mechanisms and warning models of rock collapse disasters vary widely.Scientific identification of damage to rock bridge structural surfaces is essential for early warning and prevention of these disasters.Conducting damage identification of rock bridge structural surfaces and comprehensive monitoring research,which includes static,dynamic,and environmental indicators(SDEI),is key to early monitoring and warning of large-scale rock collapses.The study of early warning mechanisms based on the identification of separation damage precursors is an effective means to enhance the timeliness of early warnings for such disasters.With the development of micro-electromechanical systems and cloud-edge collaboration technology,a new multivariate early warning paradigm is expected to emerge in the future.This paradigm would feature real-time linkage of dynamic stability evaluation,unstable working condition prediction,and failure time prediction models.It is also necessary to continuously enrich the early warning technology system for brittle failure disasters,such as large-scale rock collapses,to achieve real-time analysis of warning levels,stability status,unstable conditions,and timing of dangerous rock masses,effectively addressing the dual challenges of scientific and accurate prevention and control of largescale rock collapse disasters and intelligent emergency decision-making.Finally,several development strategies and countermeasures are proposed to overcome the technical bottlenecks in current early monitoring and warning research.For instance,in the field of theoretical research on monitoring and early warning,it is crucial to investigate the causes and early warning mechanisms of brittle destruction disasters such as largescale collapses.In terms of monitoring equipment development,promoting the development of domestic equipment that integrates dynamic indicators and SDEI is necessary.Building a monitoring and early warning index system based on the integration of multi-source information from SDEI is essential in the research on monitoring and early warning index systems.The development of intelligent monitoring and early warning technology based on cloud-edge integration should be steadily advanced.In terms of data collection for case studies of large-scale dangerous rock mass collapse disasters,comprehensively constructing the SDEI database for various large-scale dangerous rock mass collapse case monitoring samples should be undertaken,ultimately forming a virtuous development cycle of research on theoretical models of large-scale dangerous rock mass collapse disasters,development of monitoring equipment,construction of index systems,development of early warning technology,and database upgrading and improvement.These measures can provide some reference for better responding to large-scale rock collapse disasters in high-risk geological hazard areas.