可再生能源消费替代对能源效率的影响效应研究

The Impact of Renewable Energy Consumption Substitution on Energy Efficiency

可再生能源消费替代是推进能源革命和经济高质量发展的重要途径,现有研究对其影响经济增长的理论和实证研究都较为充分,但较少涉及其节能减排效应领域。首先,通过构建包含可再生能源消费替代的内生增长模型,理论分析可再生能源消费替代对能源效率的正向影响效应。然后,采用PVAR模型实证分析可再生能源消费替代对能源效率的影响,结果表明,可再生能源消费替代能够显著促进能源效率的提高,但由于现阶段可再生能源消费占比较低,其影响效应仍有较大提升空间。其次,采用滚动回归模型检验可再生能源消费替代对能源效率影响的动态变化,结果表明,可再生能源消费替代对能源效率的影响具有阶段性特征,当占比在20%~45%之间时,可再生能源消费替代对能源效率的影响效应相对最佳。最后,从创新驱动可再生能源技术研发、集中开发与分布式利用并举方面提出了促进可再生能源产业发展,实现节能减排和能源效率提高的政策建议。

Renewable energy consumption substitution is an important method of promoting the energy revolution and high-quality economic development.Existing theoretical and empirical research on its impact on economic growth is relatively sufficient,but few studies explore its impact on energy conservation and emission reduction.This study theoretically analyzes the positive impact of renewable energy consumption substitution on energy efficiency by first constructing an endogenous growth model including renewable energy consumption substitution.Subsequently,a panel vector autoregressive model is used to empirically analyze the impact of renewable energy consumption substitution on energy efficiency.The results show that renewable energy consumption substitution can significantly improve energy efficiency.However,owing to the relatively low proportion of renewable energy consumption at this stage,its impact still has considerable room for improvement.Second,the rolling regression model is used to test the dynamic changes in the impact of renewable energy consumption substitution on energy efficiency.The results show that the substitution of renewable energy consumption has the characteristics of phases.When the proportion of renewable energy consumption is between 20%and 45%,the effect of renewable energy consumption substitution on energy efficiency is relatively best.Finally,the study proposes policy suggestions to promote the development of the renewable energy industry,realize energy conservation and emission reduction,and improve energy efficiency from the aspects of innovation-driven renewable energy technology research and development,centralized development,and distributed utilization.