黄河流域耕地利用转型时空演变及其对粮食生产的影响

Spatial-temporal evolution of cultivated land use transition and its impact on grain production in the Yellow River Basin

为探明耕地利用转型趋势及其对粮食生产的影响,采用熵权法、全局空间自相关、空间滞后模型等方法,以黄河流域9省区115个地级市为基本研究单元,构建耕地利用转型指标体系,计算耕地利用转型指数分析2000-2018年耕地利用转型时空格局演变情况,并测度耕地利用转型对粮食生产的影响。结果表明:1)黄河流域耕地利用显性转型指数的空间分布呈现平原高山区低的格局,隐性转型指数的空间分布则更多与当地经济状况相关,显性转型、隐性转型和综合转型指数均呈现先上升后下降的趋势。2)2000-2018年黄河流域3种转型指数均表现出明显的空间聚集,且空间聚集性逐渐减弱。3)耕地利用显性转型在一定程度上抑制了粮食产量,隐性转型和综合转型能够显著促进粮食产量的提高,基础设施的建设与改善、机械化水平的提高是主要原因。本研究从市域尺度出发研究了黄河流域9省区耕地利用转型过程及其对粮食生产的影响,研究结果可为区域耕地利用转型研究及保障粮食生产方面提供理论支撑和决策参考。

In order to explore the trend of cultivated land use transition and its impact on grain production,based on 115 prefecture-level cities in 9 provinces and autonomous regions of the Yellow River Basin,the entropy weight method,global spatial autocorrelation and spatial lag model were used to construct an index system of cultivated land use transition.The spatiotemporal pattern evolution of cultivated land use transition from 2000 to 2018 was analyzed by calculating the cultivated land use transition index,and the impact of cultivated land use transition on grain production was measured.The results showed that:1)The spatial distribution of the explicit transition index of cultivated land use in the Yellow River Basin displyed low in plain areas and high in mountainous areas patten.The spatial distribution of the implicit transition index is more related to local economic conditions.The explicit transition index,the implicit transition index and the integrated transition index all show a trend of first increasing and then decreasing.2)From 2000 to 2018,three types of transformation indices in the Yellow River Basin showed obvious spatial agglomeration,and the spatial agglomeration was gradually weakened.3)The explicit transition of cultivated land use inhibited grain production to a certain extent,and the implicit transition and comprehensive transition significantly promoted the increase of grain yield.The construction and improvement of infrastructure and mechanization level were the main reasons.In conclusion,this study can provide theoretical support and decision-making reference for the study of regional cultivated land use transition and ensuring grain production in the nine provinces and regions of the Yellow River Basin from the municipal scale.