自然灾害对我国农业产量和宏观经济的影响研究

Study on the Impact of Natural Disasters on Agricultural Production and Macroeconomy in China

为了分析自然灾害事件是如何影响农业生产,进而影响宏观经济的传导机制,文章利用中国地面气候资料日值数据集的气温和降水量数据、2000-2020年省级面板数据和投入产出表数据,分别应用描述统计法、固定效应模型和CGE模型,绘制了中国气候变化和干旱洪涝灾害的时空分布特征图,分析了自然灾害对农业生产的影响,模拟了农业产值变化对中国宏观经济各部门的影响。研究表明,中国南、东和中部地区异常降水事件频繁,西北地区年降水量少但更稳定,干旱灾害发生频繁且持续时间较长;农业灾害受灾面积增加1%会导致农林牧渔业总产值减少0.02%,粮食总产量减少0.027%,因近十年农业投入增加使得年平均受灾面积的减少而避免了5%的农业生产损失,从而对宏观经济各部门均产生了积极影响。

To analyze the transmission mechanisms through which natural disaster events affect agricultural production and subsequently impact the macroeconomy,this paper utilizes temperature and precipitation data from the China Surface Climate Data Daily Value Dataset,provincial panel data from 2000-2020,and input-output table data.Using descriptive statistics,fixed effects models,and CGE models,the study maps the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of climate change and drought-flood disasters in China.It further examines the impact of natural disasters on agricultural production and simulates the effects of changes in agricultural output on various sectors of the Chinese macroeconomy.The results indicate that abnormal precipitation events are frequent in southern,eastern,and central China,while the northwestern region experiences less but more stable annual precipitation,with frequent and prolonged droughts.A 1%increase in the disaster-affected area in agriculture leads to a 0.02%decrease in the gross output value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry,and fisheries,and a 0.027%decrease in total grain output.Increased agricultural investment over the past decade has reduced the average annual disaster-affected area,preventing a 5%loss in agricultural production and positively impacting all macroeconomic sectors.