高端酒店业亏损预警模型比较研究——基于Logistic回归分析与Fisher判别分析

Comparative Study on Distress Prediction Models of High-end Hotel Industry——Based on Logistic Regression Analysis and Fisher Discriminant Analysis

世界经济增长缓慢,产业结构调整的持续深化为我国带来了前所未有的新挑战。高端酒店行业的财务预警问题受到越来越多利害关系者的关注。基于Fisher判别分析与Logistic回归分析,结合酒店业经营现状,建立预警分析模型。结果表明,判别模型准确率为80.77%,而Logistic回归分析达到了84.62%,说明Logistic回归模型更为优化,可直接用于实际,能够找出公司陷入财务危机产生显著影响的主要指标。对利害相关者预测财务困境、进行风险投资、企业预警分析以及企业综合评价有着重要的现实意义。

The slow growth of world economy and the continuous deepening of industrial structure adjustment have brought unprecedented new challenges to China.The financial early warning problem of high-end hotel industry has been paid more and more attention by stakeholders.Based on Fisher discrimination analysis and logistic regression analysis,the early warning analysis model is established based on the current situation of hotel industry.The results show that the accuracy of the discriminant model is 80.77%,and the logistic regression analysis reaches 84.62%,which indicates that the logistic regression model is more optimized and it can be used directly in practice to identify the main indicators that have a significant impact on a company’s financial crisis.It is of great practical significance for stakeholders to predict financial difficulties,carry out venture investment,early warning analysis and comprehensive evaluation of enterprises.